Alabama Sentencing Simulation Model, 1998-2003 (ICPSR 34671)
Prior to 2003, the State of Alabama had no formal methodology to forecast prison populations, including a simulation model or statistical time-series and forecasting methods. Instead, the Alabama Department of Corrections relied on percent growth models, using the existing prison population to forecast future statewide prison populations. As Alabama moved toward a structured sentencing system, more precision was needed to investigate the impact statewide sentencing reform would have on the prison population. Adding to the need for more precise forecast methods, the Alabama Sentencing Commission intended to incorporate Virginia worksheet-style sentencing guidelines into its sentencing reform efforts. The Virginia sentencing guidelines uses offender and offense factors identified with statistical models and weights to guide sentence recommendations. Alabama require an analytical tool to guide the Commission during development of such a complicated sentencing system. To shepherd this process, the simulation model development project was undertaken which consisted of three phases;
- The development of a baseline projection of current practices for later comparison with projections made following implementation of the sentencing standards;
- Incorporating the initial sentencing standards into the simulation model; and
- Integrating disparate modules together into a user-friendly model interface.
The Anatomy of Discretion: An Analysis of Prosecutorial Decision-making for Cases Processed by Offices in One Northern County and One Southern County, 2007-2010 (ICPSR 32542)
Prosecuting attorneys enjoy broad discretion in making decisions that influence criminal case outcomes. This study examines the impact of legal, quasi-legal, and extra-legal factors on case outcomes throughout the prosecutorial process. It then examines how prosecutors weigh these factors in their decision making and explores the formal and informal mechanisms that constrain or regulate prosecutors' decision-making.
The study examines case screening decisions, charging decisions, plea offers, sentence recommendations, and dismissals in two moderately large county prosecutors' offices. It includes statistical analyses of actual case outcomes, responses to a standardized set of hypothetical cases, and responses to a survey of prosecutors' opinions and priorities, as well as qualitative analyses of two waves of individual interviews and focus groups. It addresses the following questions:
- How did prosecutors define and apply the concepts of justice and fairness?
- What factors were associated with prosecutorial outcomes at each stage?
- How did prosecutors interpret and weigh different case-specific factors in making decisions at each stage?
- How did contextual factors constrain or regulate prosecutorial decision making?
- How consistent were prosecutors' decisions across similar cases? What case-level and contextual factors influenced the degree of consistency?
Assessing the Impact of Pre-Adjudication Assessment Approaches on Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Oregon, 2014-2018 (ICPSR 37595)
This study examines two counties in Oregon (Multnomah and Yamhill) that have utilized a pre-adjudication risk assessment (PAA) to inform criminal case negotiation since 2014. This study seeks to answer these core questions:
- has the introduction of a PAA into the court decision-making process impacted racial and ethnic disparities in sentencing outcomes over time in each county;
- does one PAA process appear to produce more promising results in impacting racial/ethnic disparities;
- using interviews and visual observations, how does the PAA influence case discussion and negotiation, decision-making, and workgroup norms and culture;
- does validation of the PAA tool yield significant mean score differences across racial groups and/or predictive biases?
A number of jurisdictions have turned to pre-adjudication risk assessments (PAA) as a tool to potentially lower or stabilize incarceration rates by identifying the best suitable cases for community-based supervision. Questions have been raised about using risk assessment tools to help with the negotiation of sentencing outcomes in the pre-adjudication stages of criminal cases, particularly the potential for exacerbating disparate racial/ethnic sentencing outcomes.