AP VoteCast, United States, 2022 (ICPSR 38835)

Version Date: Jun 19, 2023

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Principal Investigator(s):
Jennifer Benz, Associated Press, NORC Center for Public Affairs Research; Trevor Tompson, Associated Press, NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

Series:

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38835.v1

Version V1

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Summary

Associated Press (AP) VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted in all 50 states by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago for the Associated Press (AP) and Fox News. The survey is funded by AP. The survey of 120,896 registered voters was conducted between October 31st and November 8th, 2022, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. Interviews were conducted via phone and web, with 4,506 completing by phone and 116,309 completing by web. AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; with self-identified registered voters conducted using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and with self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Participants selected from state voter files were contacted by phone and mail, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online.

Citation

Benz, Jennifer, and Tompson, Trevor. AP VoteCast, United States, 2022. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-06-19. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38835.v1

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Funding

Associated Press

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

State

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

2022-10-31 -- 2022-11-09

Date of Collection

2022-10-31 -- 2022-11-09

Data Collection Notes

  1. For additional information, please visit the study website.
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Study Purpose

The purpose of this study is to survey the American electorate.

Study Design

AP VoteCast combined interviews from a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; with self-identified registered voters randomly sampled from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and with self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability panels. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone interviews were conducted using live interviewers. Respondents may have received a small monetary incentive up to $10 for completing the survey. Participants selected from state voter files were contacted by phone and mail and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. AmeriSpeak participants could be contacted by email, mail, or phone, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. Participants selected from the nonprobability panels took the survey online.

All probability sample records were mailed a postcard inviting them to complete the survey either online using a unique PIN or via telephone by calling a toll-free number. Postcards were addressed by name to the sampled registered voter if that individual was under age 35; postcards were addressed to "[STATE] Registered Voter" in all other cases. Additional outbound dialing was conducted for sampled records in the two lowest predicted response propensity quintiles who had not already responded online. Telephone interviews were conducted with the adult that answered the phone. Both online and telephone respondents provided confirmation of registered voter status in the state.

Nonprobability participants were provided by Dynata, Cint, and Prodege, including members of their third-party panels. Dynata used router technology to recruit participants, and all available panelists age 18 and older in each state were recruited. Dynata's system used built-in technology that uses digital fingerprinting, geolocation clues, and checks at enrollment to confirm identity and to identify suspicious behavior to prevent respondents from completing the survey more than once. Cint's suppliers invited respondents to the survey using email invites and panelist recruitment. Before sending them into the survey, Cint targeted and pre-screened respondents age 18 and older on the basis of registered voter status and state location using zip codes. Prodege invited its members to the survey using invitations sent by email and through the panelist portal. Digital fingerprint software and panel-level ID validation was used to prevent respondents from completing the VoteCast survey multiple times. Nonprobability respondents provided confirmation of registered voter status in the state.

Sample

Probability-based Registered Voter Sample: in each of the 45 states in which VoteCast included a probability-based sample, NORC obtained a sample of registered voters from Catalist LLC's registered voter database. This database included demographic information, as well as addresses and phone numbers for registered voters, allowing potential respondents to be contacted via mail and telephone. The sample was stratified by state, a four-level partisanship variable, and a five-level predicted response propensity variable. In states with a large non-white voter population, race and ethnicity was also a stratifying factor. In addition, NORC attempted to match sampled records to a registered voter database maintained by L2, which provided additional phone numbers and demographic information. After the matching, NORC had phone numbers for 91% of sampled records, including cell phone numbers for 91% of records with a phone number.

Nonprobability Sample: Nonprobability participants were provided by Dynata, Cint, and Prodege, including members of their third-party panels. Among the 28,838 panelists who touched Dynata's pre-screener instrument, 21,796 went on to complete the full survey. Panelists recruited for a specific state were only allowed to complete the survey if they were registered to vote in that state. Among the 155,138 panelists who touched Cint's pre-screener instrument, 51,095 went on to complete the full survey. Respondents recruited for a specific state were only allowed to complete the survey if they were registered to vote in that state. In order to ensure the final sample did not include any respondents who completed the survey more than once, Cint removed duplicates by IP address, participant ID, and cookies. Before sending them into the survey, Prodege targeted and pre-screened respondents age 18 and older on the basis of age, gender, education, income, race/ethnicity, state, and registered voter status.

A response rate cannot be calculated for nonprobability samples. While there is no way to quantify the size of the non-covered population for an opt-in panel, the primary population least likely to be included was those without internet access.

Time Method

Cross-sectional

Universe

Registered voters in the 50 U.S. States.

Unit(s) of Observation

Individual

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Description of Variables

This study includes variables on how participants voted in various state and national races, as well as variables on participants' opinions on various political candidates, politicians, and political topics.

Response Rates

The overall weighted response rate for the probability sample drawn from the state voter files was 2.7%. The overall weighted response rate for the AmeriSpeak panel sample was 9.7%.

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Original Release Date

2023-06-19

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Weight

VoteCast employed a four-step weighting approach that combines the probability sample with the nonprobability sample and refined estimates at a subregional level within each state. For national estimates, the 50 state surveys and the AmeriSpeak survey were weighted separately and then combined into a survey representative of voters in all 50 states. Please see the P.I. Codebook for additional information on using weights.

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Notes