AP VoteCast Series

AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News and The Associated Press. The survey is funded by AP. AP VoteCast was conducted in Georgia for their two 2021 Senate runoff elections. The survey of 4,565 registered voters was conducted December 28, 2020, to January 5, 2021, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. Interviews were conducted via phone and web, with 186 completing by phone and 4,379 completing by web.

AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files with self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents may have received a small monetary incentive for completing the survey. Participants selected from state voter files were contacted by phone and mail, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online.

In Georgia, VoteCast is based on 1,173 probability-based interviews conducted online and via phone, and 3,392 nonprobability interviews conducted online. The margin of sampling error is estimated to be plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for voters (n=3,792) and 4.5 percentage points for nonvoters (n=773). The unweighted response rate for the probability sample drawn from the Georgia state voter file was 1.9%.

AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press and Fox News. The survey is funded by AP. In 2024, AP VoteCast covered presidential primary elections in three states across three election dates. For all three elections, interviews were conducted via phone and web. The surveys concluded when polls closed on Election Day: The Iowa Republican caucus on January 15, the New Hampshire Republican and Democratic primaries on January 23, and the South Carolina Republican primary on February 24. Respondents who completed the survey three days or more before Election Day (for example, January 8-12 for Iowa) were asked if they would be willing to be re-contacted for a follow-up survey. Those who consented were contacted during the final three days of the field period and re-asked their intent to vote and vote choice. The vote intent and vote choice provided in the re-contact survey were used for the final estimates. If a respondent did not complete the re-contact survey, their original intent to vote and vote choice responses were retained. Respondents were re-contacted using their preferred mode -- a call from a NORC interviewer or a text or email with a link to complete the short re-contact survey online.

AP VoteCast combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files with a sample of self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. Interviews with the probability and nonprobability samples were conducted in English and Spanish. Participants in the probability sample selected from state voter files were contacted by phone and mail and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. All interviews from nonprobability sample sources were completed online.