Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers? (ICPSR 1242)

Version Date: Jun 12, 2001

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Principal Investigator(s):
William T. Gavin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Rachel Mandel, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1

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Summary

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor rule, the authors show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.

Citation

Gavin, William T., and Mandel, Rachel. Forecasting Inflation and Growth:  Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers? Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2001-06-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1

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Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Data Collection Notes

  1. (1) There were two files submitted, 0105wgp.prg, containing programs, and 0105wgd.xls, containing data. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

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Original Release Date

2001-06-12

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:

  • Gavin, William T., and Rachel Mandel. Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?. ICPSR01242-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2001-06-12. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1

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Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.