The Democratic Nomination

The potential vulnerability of Bush encouraged several Democrats to run for president. At least six individuals were considered the major contenders for the Democratic nomination: retired Army general Wesley Clark, former Vermont governor Howard Dean, Senator John Edwards, Congressman Richard Gephardt, Senator John Kerry, and Senator Joseph Lieberman. Senator Bob Graham initially was included in the list of serious candidates, but he abandoned his campaign before the first primary or caucus. Other candidates, such as Congressman Dennis Kucinich or the Reverend Al Sharpton were never given any chance of capturing the nomination. Al Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential candidate, decided not to run again in 2004. With Gore out of the race, there was no clear early favorite.

From this group of Democratic hopefuls, Dean emerged as the leading candidate prior to the first nomination contests, which were the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, both scheduled for January 2004 (Burden 2005, 25-28; Ceaser and Busch 2005, 69-73). He held the early lead in public opinion polling and in fund raising, both factors that in the past have been good predictors of success. Dean's emergence as the front runner was a surprise to many, as he lacked substantial national recognition. His support stemmed largely from the fact that Dean built his campaign around his opposition to the Iraq War, a stance that appealed to many Democratic primary voters. Many of his opponents for the nomination, such as Kerry, had voted for the congressional resolution to use force in Iraq. While they were critical of Bush's policy toward Iraq, their opposition to the war was not as clear and straightforward as was Dean's. Dean also made extensive use of the Internet to raise money and build a grassroots organization. When Gore endorsed Dean in December 2003, many assumed that he would be the Democratic nominee.

Early primaries and caucuses play an extremely influential role in the nomination process. In past years, these early contests greatly boosted some candidacies while destroying others. Such was the case in 2004. Although Dean was the front runner prior to the Iowa caucuses, he finished only third in this event. Kerry, whose campaign appeared to be floundering in December, was the unexpected winner in Iowa. Edwards finished second, which put wind into his campaign sails. Two weeks later, in the New Hampshire primary, Kerry again won, making him the clear leader. Kerry continued to win primaries and caucuses throughout February, coming in first in 12 of the 14 contests held in that month. March 2 and 9 were key dates in the nomination contest; a number of states, including several large ones, had scheduled their primaries for one of these dates. Kerry recorded decisive victories in nearly every early March contest. Only Vermont, Dean's home state, eluded Kerry's grasp. By mid-March, Kerry had secured the nomination.

The rise of Kerry and demise of Dean as candidates resulted from at least two factors. First, as the front runner in Iowa, Dean was the focus of attacks by the other candidates, which naturally tarnished his image. Gephardt and Dean in particular attacked each other in Iowa (Ceaser and Busch 2005, 102). Kerry, by contrast, did not attract as much attention because he did not seem to be as serious a threat. Second, many Democrats wanted badly to defeat Bush and thus were very concerned about nominating their strongest candidate. Kerry's military record and lengthy service in the Senate were credentials that seemed valuable for an election in which foreign policy and defense issues would play a key role. Dean had no military service in his background, and as a governor, he had no direct foreign policy experience. Moreover, Dean was perceived to be more liberal than Kerry, which would presumably be a liability in the general election. The other candidates in the race also appeared to many to be less viable candidates in the general election. Edwards, for example, proved to be a good campaigner, but his political experience consisted of just one-term in the Senate. Thus, Kerry was seen by many Democrats as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Bush (Burden 2005, 33-34).