US Foreign Policy towards Haiti 1994

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Goal

The goal of this exercise is to explore US foreign policy and the way US citizens view these policies and their implementation. In this exercise, we will explore foreign policy towards Haiti in 1994. Frequency tables and crosstabs will be used.

Concept

Presidents, Bureaucrats, and Congressional representatives all participate in making US foreign policy. These policy makers may take several approaches when developing foreign policy. An example of one type of foreign policy approach is when a powerful nation attempts to prevent aggressive actions against it by improving the internal state of affairs of another country that is perceived as a threat, even if this means encouraging a revolution. This approach was used by the US towards Haiti in 1994.

In 1994, following military rule, political and civil unrest erupted in Haiti. President Clinton pursued a policy that did not tighten the embargo against Haiti because he was concerned it would hurt, rather than help the Haitian people. In addition, out of concern for a possible invasion of Haitian refugees, Clinton also agreed to repatriate Haitians who made it to the United States. Clinton's team negotiated for the military leaders to leave Haiti and for the return of the elected Haitian president.

Examples of possible research questions about Haitian Foreign Policy include:

  • According to US public opinion, how clear and/or effective is the President's foreign policy toward Haiti?
  • How do US citizens' preferences about foreign policy towards Haiti match the President's foreign policy plan?
  • How do citizens' policy preferences compare to preferences for policy implementation?
  • How do different demographic groups in the US feel about foreign policy towards Haiti?
  • How did Haitians respond to President Clinton's foreign policy towards Haiti in 1994?

This exercise uses the ABC News/Washington Post Poll, May 1994. This poll, conducted May 12-15, 1994, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President Bill Clinton and his handling of the presidency and issues such as crime and the situation in Haiti, and whether he was doing a better job handling the economy and foreign affairs than former President George H.W. Bush. Views were sought on Clinton's health care plan, the nomination of Stephen G. Breyer to the United States Supreme Court, and the ability of the federal government to solve problems. A series of questions addressed Clinton's handling of the Haitian refugees attempting to enter the United States by boat, whether he could be trusted to make the right decisions regarding the United States role in world affairs, and whether his handling of foreign affairs was creating anti-American feelings overseas. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, marital status, labor union membership, employment status, household income, education level, perceived social class, type of residential area (e.g., urban, rural, etc.), religious preference, political party affiliation, political orientation, and voter registration status and participation history.

This exercise will use the following variables:

  • CLINTON HAS CLEAR POLICY IN HAITI (Q26)
  • CLINTON HANDLING HAITIANS ENTERING U.S. (Q28)
  • U.S. SHOULD TURN BACK BOATS OF HAITIANS (Q30)
  • U.S. SHOULD INTERVIEW HAITIANS FIRST (Q31)
  • U.S. RESTORE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT IN HAITI (Q32)
  • HISPANIC ORIGIN (Q918)
  • POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION (Q901)
  • RESPONDENT SEX (Q921)

US Foreign Policy and Haiti

Respondents were asked: "Would you agree or disagree that the United States should take all action necessary, including the use of military force, to restore a democratic government to Haiti" (Q32)? Response options were: "1: Agree" and "2: Disagree." Do respondents support the Napoleonic approach to foreign policy with respect to the 1994 situation in Haiti?

Clarity and Effectiveness of Policy

Respondents were asked: "Do you think Clinton has a clear policy on what to do in Haiti, or not" (Q26)? Response options were: "1: Yes" and "2: No." Did most respondents think President Clinton's policy towards Haiti was clear?

Respondents were asked: "Do you ap&ddlg=ForeignPolsHaitiprove or disapprove of the way Clinton is handling the situation involving the Haitians trying to enter this country on boats" (Q28)? Response options were "1: Approve" and "2: Disapprove." Respondents were asked "Are you of Hispanic origin or background? (IF "YES," ASK:) Are you White Hispanic or Black Hispanic? (IF "NO," ASK:) Are you White, Black, or some other race (Q918)?" Response options were: "1: White," "2: Black," "3: White Hispanic," "4: Black Hispanic," "5: Hispanic (no race given)," and "6: Other race." We recoded this to combine "3: White Hispanic," "4: Black Hispanic," and "5: Hispanic (no race given)" into one category because the original question asked about Hispanic origin or background first, then race. We named this new variable: RACEETH. Consider this crosstab: (Q28) and RACEETH. Do respondents believe the policy towards Haitians entering the US is effective ("1: Approve") or ineffective ("2: Disapprove")? Is there a difference in how racial/ethnic groups view the way Clinton is handling the situation? Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to "Disapprove?" Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to "Approve?"

Shared Policy Preferences

Let's see how the respondents think the situation with Haitians should be handled. Respondents were asked: "Again, generally speaking, do you think the United States should turn back the boats of Haitians seeking to enter the United States, or not" (Q30)? Response options were: "1: Yes" and "2: No." Do most respondents think the "US should turn back the boats of Haitians" seeking to enter the US? How do respondent preferences compare to the President's policy?

Policy Preferences vs. Implementation

Now that we know how respondents think the Haitian boat situation should be handled, we can see how that corresponds to how the policy should be implemented. Respondents were also asked: "Do you think the United States should turn back all the Haitians, or should it first interview them to find those that face political persecution at home, and allow those Haitians to enter this country (Q31)?" Response options were: "1: Should turn back all" and "Interview them." Consider the relationship between whether or not Haitians should be interviewed (Q31) and Haitians should be returned to Haiti (Q30). Look at the crosstab for (Q31) and (Q30). What percentage of the respondents who said "Yes" the US should turn back the boats of Haitians also said the US should "Interview them?" What percentage of those who said "No" the US should not turn back the boats of Haitians also said the US "should turn back all the Haitians?" Does the bar chart help illustrate the relationship?

Race/Ethnicity and Policy Preferences

Consider the crosstab for (Q30) and RACEETH. Is there a difference between racial/ethnic groups in their preferences for whether or not the US should turn back the boats of Haitians? Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to say "Yes?" Which racial/ethnic group is least likely to agree with a policy of turning back the boats?

Gender and Partisan Policy Preferences

Respondents were also asked about their political party affiliation: "Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: 1: Democrat, 2: Republican, 3: Independent, 4: or What?" (Q901) and their Sex: "1: Male" and "2: Female" (Q921). Consider the crosstab for whether or not the "US should turn back the boats of Haitians" (Q30) and Respondent Sex (Q921), controlling for political party affiliation (Q901). This allows us to compare 6 groups: Democratic Men, Democratic Women, Republican Men, Republican Women, Independent Men and Independent Women. The final table in the chart is for all men and women, regardless of party. Which group (party identification-gender) is more likely to say "Yes, the US should turn back the boats of Haitians?" Which group was least likely to agree with his policy? Overall, were men or women more likely to respond "No?"

Think about your answers to the application questions before you click through to the interpretation guide for help in answering them.

US Foreign Policy and Haiti

Do respondents support the Napoleonic approach to foreign policy with respect to the 1994 situation in Haiti?

Clarity and Effectiveness of Policy

Did most respondents think President Clinton's policy towards Haiti was clear?

Do respondents believe the policy towards Haitians entering the US is effective ("1: Approve") or ineffective ("2: Disapprove")? Is there a difference between how racial/ethnic groups view the way Clinton is handling the situation? Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to "Disapprove?" Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to "Approve?"

Shared Policy Preferences

Do most respondents think the "US should turn back the boats of Haitians" seeking to enter the US? How do respondent preferences compare to the President's policy?

Policy Preferences vs. Implementation

What percentage of the respondents who said "Yes" the US should turn back the boats of Haitians also said the US should "Interview them?" What percentage of those who said "No" the US should not turn back the boats of Haitians also said the US "should turn back all the Haitians?" Does the bar chart help illustrate the relationship?

Race/Ethnicity and Policy Preferences

Is there a difference between racial/ethnic groups in their preferences for whether or not the US should turn back the boats of Haitians? Which racial/ethnic group is more likely to say "Yes?" Which racial/ethnic group is least likely to agree with a policy of turning back the boats?

Gender and Partisan Policy Preferences

Which group (party identification-gender) is more likely to say "Yes, the US should turn back the boats of Haitians?" Which group was least likely to agree with his policy? Overall, were men or women more likely to respond "No?"

Interpretation

Things to think about in interpreting the results:

  • Weights (mathematical formulas) are often used to adjust the sample proportions, usually by race, sex, or age, to more closely match those of the general population. The analyses in this guide used weights to increase the generalizability of the findings, so the resulting tables are meant to reflect the relationships we would expect to see in the general population.
  • The numbers in each cell of the crosstabulation tables show the percentage of people who fall into the overlapping categories, followed by the actual number of people that represents in this sample. The coloring in the tables demonstrates how the observed number in a cell compares to the expected number if there were no association between the two variables. The accompanying bar charts display the patterns visually as well.
  • The use of column percentages, as shown in these tables, allows for the comparison of answers to the "outcome" of interest across values of the grouping variable. For example, 28.4% of White respondents said US should not turn back the boats of Haitians.
  • The analyses show the following:
    • Most of the respondents (60.8%) "disagree" that the US "should take all action necessary, including the use of military force, to restore a democratic government to Haiti."
    • More than three quarters of the respondents (79.4%) said the President's policy toward Haiti was not clear.
    • A majority of the respondents (59.6%) "disapprove" of the way Clinton is handling the situation involving Haitians trying to enter the US, while 40.4% "approve." There is a difference between racial/ethnic groups on how they feel about the way Clinton is handling the situation involving Haitians trying to enter the country on boats. Hispanic respondents had the lowest rate of approval (31.8%) while Black respondents had the highest approval rates (50.8%).
    • 67.8% of the respondents said that the Haitians should be returned to Haiti, only 32.2% said they, they should not. For a majority of the respondents, their policy preferences seem to be in line with the President's policy (turn back the boats of Haitians). However, recall that most of the respondents said they disapproved of the Clinton handled the situation (59.6%, see above).
    • Of those respondents who said "Yes" the US should turn back the boats of Haitians, half (49.8%) said the US should Interview them. Interestingly, a small number (7.2%) of the respondents who said that the US should not turn back the boats of Haitians also said the US "should turn back all the Haitians." It seems as though the respondents have a clear policy preference ("yes, the US should turn back the boats of Haitians"), yet the majority of respondents favor interviewing the refugees to a blanket approach of turning all Haitians away.
    • White respondents were more likely to say "Yes" the US should turn back boats of Haitians (71.6%). Respondents who indicated "Other" for race/ethnicity were least likely to agree with this policy (49.5%). (The policy approval rates among those who identified as Black were very similar to "Other" with 50.9%.)
    • Republican men were most likely to say the US should turn back the boats of Haitians (76.2%). Independent men were next, with 72.1% responding "Yes." Although the majority of all respondents did favor a policy of turning back the boats, women, especially those who identified as Independents politically, were less likely to agree with this policy (62.8% of all women and 57.2% of Independent women).

Summary

The goal of this exercise was to explore US foreign policy, how it is perceived by US citizens, and how closely citizen preferences match actual policy. In the case of the 1994 Haiti situation, the President was primarily responsible for the foreign policy. The respondents in this survey did not approve of the US' foreign policy approach in Haiti. We saw that although most respondents said they wanted the same policy as President Clinton, they did not approve of his policy or think it was very clear. Yet, respondents were also unclear about the policy they preferred (Haitians returned to Haiti) and how to go about implementing the policy (sending back Haitians or interviewing them).

When we looked at the relationship between race/ethnicity and perceptions of President Clinton's performance and policy preferences we saw that Black respondents were more likely to approve of the way Clinton was handling the situation. Blacks and those respondents who said "other" for race/ethnicity were also more likely to say "No" about sending the Haitian boats back to Haiti. With respect to gender and party affiliation, Republican men were most likely than other groups to support the turning back of Haitian boats, while Independent women were least supportive of this policy.

Future research may consider the relationship between respondent knowledge, ideology, and foreign policy preferences. Finally, researchers may wish to follow up to see how the policy was received by the citizens of Haiti.

CITATION: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. US Foreign Policy towards Haiti 1994: A Data-Driven Learning Guide. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2010-05-25. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3886/ForeignPolsHaiti

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