Monitoring the Future: Ages 40 and 45 Panel Data, United States, 1998-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39767)

Version Date: Apr 6, 2026

Cite this study |

Principal Investigator(s):
Megan E. Patrick, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center; John E. Schulenberg, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center; Richard A. Miech, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center; Lloyd D. Johnston, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center; Patrick M. O'Malley, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center; Jerald G. Bachman, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center

Series:

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR39767.v1

Version V1

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Summary

The longitudinal Monitoring the Future (MTF) Panel study extends the work of the cross-sectional MTF Main study by following a subsample of graduating seniors through the entire adult life course. The selected respondents are surveyed every two years from ages 19-30. Starting at age 35, respondents are surveyed every five years, at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and follow-up surveys and include additional questions on life events and health.

This study contains only the survey data for ages 40 and 45 for the MTF longitudinal panel study participants that have reached age 40 (FZ2) and/or age 45 (FZ3) through the 2021 data collection.

NOTE: Users must also request the core panel data file: MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Core Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39223) because demographic information (e.g. sex, race/ethnicity) for the participants of the age 40 and 45 surveys is included in the core panel data file.

Researchers can merge the Age 40-45 study data file with other MTF follow-up data in this series. This includes:

  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Core Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39223)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 1 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39282)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 2 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39325)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 3 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39389)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 4 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39326)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 5 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1976-2021 (ICPSR 39283)
  • MTF: Base Year and Follow-Up Form 6 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, 1989-2021 (ICPSR 39388)
  • MTF: Age 35 Panel Data, 1993-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39749)
  • Forthcoming: MTF panel data for ages, 50-55, and 60

In addition to questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use, the Age 40 (FZ2) and Age 45 (FZ3) surveys also includes questions covering:

  • Substance use and its consequences (alcohol, marijuana/cannabis, other illicit drugs, substance use disorder symptoms)
  • Methods of marijuana/cannabis use
  • Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use
  • Living arrangements and household characteristics
  • Dating, marriage, and significant relationships
  • Family roles, obligations, burdens
  • Employment: experiences, income, financial security, satisfaction
  • Leisure time
  • Local and global concerns
  • Political interest and preferences
  • Happiness; satisfaction with life domains and self
  • Psychosocial constructs: self-esteem, locus of control, loneliness, risk-taking, boredom
  • Health symptoms and illnesses, healthy behaviors, COVID-19

Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details, including content areas included in all survey forms.

HIGHLIGHTS of this update:

  • Missing data coding has been changed/simplified in this release. Please see the User Guide for details.
  • Panel analysis weights are now included in the data file instead of a stand-alone file. Please see the updated documentation for information.

Please be alert for variable coding differences between paper and web survey versions, especially for questions skipped based on answers to other questions. Note the following:

  • The web-based version of the survey was introduced in 2020.
  • Paper vs. Web coding differences will be most noticeable for the questions related to substance use, relationship/marital status, employment, and family composition.
  • Users will need to explore their data using V40035/V45035 (89940:FZ PAPER OR WEB - RESPONSE) to look for and understand any coding differences.

Extensive work has been done to document the history and use of the MTF substance use disorder questions and criteria. Please see Substance use disorder criteria sums in the Monitoring the Future Panel Study (Occasional Paper No. 101)

More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

Citation

Patrick, Megan E., Schulenberg, John E., Miech, Richard A., Johnston, Lloyd D., O’Malley, Patrick M., and Bachman, Jerald G. Monitoring the Future: Ages 40 and 45 Panel Data, United States, 1998-2021 [Restricted-Use]. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-04-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR39767.v1

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Funding

United States Department of Health and Human Services. National Institutes of Health. National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA001411, DA016575)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

Zip code

Restrictions

Users are reminded that these data are to be used solely for statistical analysis and reporting of aggregated information, and not for the investigation of specific individuals or organizations.

Access to the data is restricted. Users interested in obtaining these data must complete a Restricted Data Use Agreement. Data are provided via ICPSR's Virtual Data Enclave (VDE). Apply for access to these data through the ICPSR's VDE Management System. For further assistance please reference the VDE Guide to learn about the application process, about using the VDE, and how to request disclosure review of VDE output.

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

1998 -- 2021 (Age 40: 1998-2021), 2003 -- 2021 (Age 45: 2003-2021)

Date of Collection

1998 -- 2021 (Age 40: 1998-2021, Longitudinal follow-up surveys, annually between April and October )), 2003 -- 2021 (Age 45: 2003-2021, Longitudinal follow-up surveys, annually between April and October))

Data Collection Notes

  1. MTF Panel surveys for ages 35+ (FZ surveys) were conducted by using the following methods:

    • Through 2019: Mailed paper surveys
    • 2020: A random half of all respondents received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push)
    • 2021: All respondents were asked to complete a web survey, and the paper survey was an option for those who did not complete the web survey.

    More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

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Sample

The nationally-representative base year (BY) cohort sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.

Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected within school by form and sex, and each base-year school was required to have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each school/form/sex combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was created, based on responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use. (An individual was considered a "user" if they reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin, or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.

When the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and health. Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF annual panel study report. for additional sampling details.

Time Method

Longitudinal: Panel

Universe

Adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview.

Unit(s) of Observation

Individual

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Response Rates

For information regarding panel response rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.

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Original Release Date

2026-04-06

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Weight

Panel analysis weights are available and recommended for use with all analyses.

Using the panel analysis weight allows estimates to weight back to the national 12th grade samples while accounting for:

  1. the probability of initial selection into the 12th grade samples;
  2. the fraction of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel selection because they did not provide contact information and/or data on sex;
  3. the panel sample selection process including oversampling of those reporting drug use at base year;
  4. panel attrition.

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C: MTF Panel Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic examples.

NOTE: Beginning with datasets that include data through 2021, the panel analysis weights are included with each data file. Prior to 2021, the panel analysis weights were available in a separate dataset which the researcher then merged into their working data sets. Please see the MTF panel data study ICPSR 37072 for details.

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Notes

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

  • ICPSR usually offers files in multiple formats for researchers to be able to access data and documentation in formats that work well within their needs. If you have questions about the accessibility of materials distributed by ICPSR or require further assistance, please visit ICPSR’s Accessibility Center.

  • One or more files in this data collection have special restrictions. Restricted data files are not available for direct download from the website; click on the Restricted Data button to learn more.

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