Monitoring the Future Longitudinal Panel Mortality Data, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39651)
Version Date: Jan 8, 2026 View help for published
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s)
Megan E. Patrick, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center;
Richard A. Miech, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center;
Lloyd D. Johnston, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center;
Patrick M. O'Malley, University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research. Survey Research Center
Series:
https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR39651.v1
Version V1
Summary View help for Summary
Since 1976, Monitoring the Future (MTF) has enrolled ~2,450 individuals each year from its nationally representative annual sample of 12th graders into the MTF Longitudinal Panel study. A primary goal of the MTF study is to examine potential consequences of substance use across the life course, including mortality. Therefore, the MTF Longitudinal Panel study now includes measures of mortality linked to the National Death Index (NDI).
The MTF Longitudinal Panel Study Mortality Data 1976-2021 file includes MTF Longitudinal Panel members from the high school cohorts of 1976-2021 whose mortality status was confirmed through either (a) the MTF NDI match process (limited to high school cohorts 1976-2019) or (b) the MTF panel tracking process (including 1976-2021 cohorts, tracking through August 2025).
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Subject Terms View help for Subject Terms
Geographic Coverage View help for Geographic Coverage
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Restrictions View help for Restrictions
Users are reminded that these data are to be used solely for statistical analysis and reporting of aggregated information, and not for the investigation of specific individuals or organizations.
Access to the data is restricted. Users interested in obtaining these data must complete a Restricted Data Use Agreement. Data are provided via ICPSR's Virtual Data Enclave (VDE). Apply for access to these data through the ICPSR VDE portal. Information and instructions are available within the data portal. For further assistance please reference the VDE Guide to learn about the application process, about using the VDE, and how to request disclosure review of VDE output.
Distributor(s) View help for Distributor(s)
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Data Collection Notes View help for Data Collection Notes
- Information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
Sample View help for Sample
The nationally-representative base year (BY) cohort sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.
Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected within school by form and sex, and each base-year school was required to have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each school/form/sex combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was created, based on responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use. (An individual was considered a "user" if they reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin, or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.
When the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and health.
Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF Annual Panel Study Report for additional sampling details.
Time Method View help for Time Method
Universe View help for Universe
Young adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview.
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Mode of Data Collection View help for Mode of Data Collection
Response Rates View help for Response Rates
For information regarding panel response rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.
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Regarding MTF Panel analysis weights, please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C: MTF Panel Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic examples.
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