Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Core Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39223)

Version Date: Jul 2, 2025

Cite this study |

Principal Investigator(s):
Megan E. Patrick, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center; John E. Schulenberg, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center; Richard A. Miech, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center; Lloyd D. Johnston, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center; Patrick M. O'Malley, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center; Jerald G. Bachman, University of Michigan. Survey Research Center

Series:

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR39223.v2

Version V2 ()

  • V2 [2025-07-02]
  • V1 [2024-12-16] unpublished
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Alternate Title

MTF BY & FU Core Panel Data 1976-2021

Summary

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research and is funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

The MTF panel study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988), and each survey contains a "core" set of questions about demographics and substance use. This study contains the "core" data for these questions compiled across all survey forms and years in which they are included for the longitudinal panel participants. Each record in the core panel dataset includes the respondent's data for their base year (BY) 12th grade survey (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30).

The core panel dataset should be selected by all researchers. Use the linking variable available on all datasets, MTFID, to link the core dataset with all other MTF panel datasets.

Here is a list of subjects included in the core dataset:

Administrative variables

  • Year of administration
  • Survey form
  • Survey date
  • BY survey weight, sampling stratum and cluster
  • FU panel analysis weights

Demographics

BY only

  • #Parents in household
  • Parent education levels
  • Respondent's age in months
  • Sex
  • Race/Ethnicity
  • Region of the country (school location)
  • Population density/Urbanicity (school location)
  • High school Zip Code, State and County FIPS codes (can be linked to user-provided data; results can be reported at no unit smaller than US geographical region)
  • Absenteeism (illness, cutting, skipping class)
  • High school program, Grades, post-high school plans

FU only

  • Pregnancy status
  • Household type
  • Urbanicity
  • Absenteeism (missing work due to illness, other)
  • Vocational/Technical education, Armed forces, College attendance
  • College grades, attendance, Greek life

BY and FU

  • Marital status
  • Household composition
  • Political preference
  • Religious attendance, importance, preference
  • Evenings out, Dating
  • Employment
  • Salary/earned Income and Other Income
  • Driving, tickets, and accidents related to alcohol and other substance use

Substance use

  • Cigarette use
  • Alcohol use (including binge drinking (e.g. 5+ drinks in a row/2 weeks), drunkenness)
  • Marijuana/cannabis, hashish use
  • LSD use
  • Hallucinogen use, other than LSD
  • Cocaine use (including cocaine, crack, other forms)
  • Amphetamine use
  • Sedatives/Barbiturate use
  • Tranquilizer use
  • Heroin use (with and without needles)
  • Narcotics use (other than Heroin)
  • Inhalant use
  • Steroid use
  • Ice use
  • Methamphetamine use
  • MDMA use
  • Vaping: nicotine, marijuana, flavoring

Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details.

More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

Citation

Patrick, Megan E., Schulenberg, John E., Miech, Richard A., Johnston, Lloyd D., O’Malley, Patrick M., and Bachman, Jerald G. Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Core Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use]. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-07-02. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR39223.v2

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Funding

United States Department of Health and Human Services. National Institutes of Health. National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA001411, DA016575)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

zip code

Restrictions

Users are reminded that these data are to be used solely for statistical analysis and reporting of aggregated information, and not for the investigation of specific individuals or organizations.

Access to the data is restricted. Users interested in obtaining these data must complete a Restricted Data Use Agreement. Data are provided via ICPSR's Virtual Data Enclave (VDE). Apply for access to these data through the ICPSR VDE portal. Information and instructions are available within the data portal. For further assistance please reference the VDE Guide to learn about the application process, about using the VDE, and how to request disclosure review of VDE output.

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

1976 -- 2021

Date of Collection

1976-01-01 -- 2020-05-31 (Base-year in-school data collection, annually between January and May), 1977-04-01 -- 2021-10-31 (Longitudinal follow-up mail surveys, annually between April and October)

Data Collection Notes

  1. MTF base year/high school surveys were conducted using the following methods:

    • 1976-2018: paper-and-pencil surveys
    • 2019: Randomization of half of the schools to the paper survey; half to a tablet-based survey preloaded with the MTF questionnaires
    • 2020: Tablet surveys; data collection halted Mar. 15, 2020 due to COVID
    • 2021+: Web-based surveys administered to all participants.

    MTF Panel surveys from 1977-2021, for young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted by using the following methods:

    • 1977-2017: Mailed paper surveys
    • 2018-2019: A random half of all respondents received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push)
    • 2020-2021: All respondents were asked to complete a web survey, and the paper survey was an option for those who did not complete the web survey.

    More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

    This study was conducted by the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan.

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Sample

The nationally-representative base year (BY) cohort sample (i.e. each high school senior class) was selected using a multistage area probability sample design involving three selection stages: (1) geographic areas or primary sampling units (PSUs), (2) schools (or linked groups of schools) within PSUs, and (3) students within sampled schools.

Each year, 2,450 respondents to the 12th grade survey were selected for biennial longitudinal follow-up. The panel sample was selected within school by form and sex, and each base-year school was required to have a minimum of two follow-up selections (individuals). The base year sampling weight was factored into the targeted sample size for each school/form/sex combination. An illicit drug user/nonuser stratification was created, based on responses to nine base year questions about 30-day drug use. (An individual was considered a "user" if they reported any use of LSD, hallucinogens other than LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, sedatives/barbiturates, tranquilizers, heroin, or narcotics other than heroin, or used marijuana 20 or more times in the past 30 days.) Illicit drug users were sampled at a 3-to-1 rate relative to non-users.

When the 12th grade respondents originally selected for follow-up reach age 35, they continue to be surveyed every five years at ages 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. Single questionnaires are presented at each age, covering many of the same topics as the age 19-30 surveys and including additional questions on life events, drug use, and health.

Please see Chapter 1 of the MTF annual panel study report for additional sampling details.

Time Method

Longitudinal: Panel

Universe

Young adult and Middle adult follow-up of the U.S. high school seniors in MTF in the year of the baseline interview.

Unit(s) of Observation

Individual

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Response Rates

For information regarding panel response rates, please see the latest MTF annual report.

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Original Release Date

2024-12-16

Version History

2025-07-02 Added updated documentation.

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Weight

Panel analysis weights are available and recommended for use with all analyses.

Using the panel analysis weight allows estimates to weight back to the national 12th grade samples while accounting for:

  1. the probability of initial selection into the 12th grade samples,
  2. the fraction of each 12th grade sample not eligible for panel selection because they did not provide contact information and/or data on sex
  3. the panel sample selection process including oversampling of those reporting drug use at base year
  4. panel attrition.

Please see the MTF Occasional Paper 98: An Updated Weighting Strategy for the Monitoring the Future Panel Study, for methodological details on the creation of the panel analysis weights, and review Supplement Appendix C: MTF Panel Analysis Weight Selection and Normalization for analytic examples.

Note: Beginning with datasets that include data through 2021, the panel analysis weights are included with each file. Prior to 2021, the panel analysis weights were available in a separate dataset which the researcher needs to merge into their working data sets. Please see the MTF panel data study NAHDAP 37072 for details.

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Notes

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

  • One or more files in this data collection have special restrictions. Restricted data files are not available for direct download from the website; click on the Restricted Data button to learn more.