Monitoring the Future: Restricted-Use Panel Study Series

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, and funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF has two components: MTF Main and MTF Panel.

The MTF Main study began with high school senior classes in 1975, and beginning in 1991, similar surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted annually. The survey draws separate, nationally-representative samples in 8th, 10th, and 12th grade, with about 100 schools and 10,000 students in each grade. For more information about the annual cross-sectional surveys, please visit the Public-Use Cross-Sectional Datasets or the Restricted-Use Cross-Sectional Datasets.

The longitudinal MTF Panel study extends the work of the cross-sectional MTF Main study by following a subsample of graduating seniors through the entire adult life course. Beginning with the class of 1976, a randomly selected sample of around 2,400 graduating seniors have taken follow up surveys every two years from ages 19–30. For young adults (19–30) (FU surveys), each cohort’s follow up sample is split into two random subsamples that are surveyed in alternate years (at ages 19/20, 21/22, 23/24, 25/26, 27/28, 29/30), so the Panel study obtains a representative sample from each cohort every year. Starting at age 35, respondents are surveyed every five years: 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and FU surveys and include additional questions on life events and health.

The Panel study now has over 120,000 individuals up to age 65* who were first surveyed in 12th grade at age 18. These data provide needed insight into the epidemiology and etiology of substance use and related behaviors, attitudes, and other factors. Repeating these annual cross-sectional surveys over time provides data to examine behavior change across history in consistent age segments of the adult life course and key subgroups. (*Age 65 data were first collected in 2023 and are forthcoming.)

The MTF Core Panel data includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). The adult FZ surveys are separated by decades: age 35, ages 40-45, ages 50-55, and age 60.

More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

For Researchers

Showing 1 to 8 of 8 entries.
Study Title/Investigator
Released/Updated
1.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Core Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39223)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research and is funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The MTF panel study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988), and each survey contains a "core" set of questions about demographics and substance use. This study contains the "core" data for these questions compiled across all survey forms and years in which they are included for the longitudinal panel participants. Each record in the core panel dataset includes the respondent's data for their base year (BY) 12th grade survey (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). The core panel dataset should be selected by all researchers. Use the linking variable available on all datasets, MTFID, to link the core dataset with all other MTF panel datasets. Here is a list of subjects included in the core dataset: Administrative variables Year of administration Survey form Survey date BY survey weight, sampling stratum and cluster FU panel analysis weights Demographics BY only #Parents in household Parent education levels Respondent's age in months Sex Race/Ethnicity Region of the country (school location) Population density/Urbanicity (school location) High school Zip Code, State and County FIPS codes (can be linked to user-provided data; results can be reported at no unit smaller than US geographical region) Absenteeism (illness, cutting, skipping class) High school program, Grades, post-high school plans FU only Pregnancy status Household type Urbanicity Absenteeism (missing work due to illness, other) Vocational/Technical education, Armed forces, College attendance College grades, attendance, Greek life BY and FU Marital status Household composition Political preference Religious attendance, importance, preference Evenings out, Dating Employment Salary/earned Income and Other Income Driving, tickets, and accidents related to alcohol and other substance use Substance use Cigarette use Alcohol use (including binge drinking (e.g. 5+ drinks in a row/2 weeks), drunkenness) Marijuana/cannabis, hashish use LSD use Hallucinogen use, other than LSD Cocaine use (including cocaine, crack, other forms) Amphetamine use Sedatives/Barbiturate use Tranquilizer use Heroin use (with and without needles) Narcotics use (other than Heroin) Inhalant use Steroid use Ice use Methamphetamine use MDMA use Vaping: nicotine, marijuana, flavoring Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 1 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39282)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988). This study contains the data for Form 1 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 1 Panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 1 also includes questions covering: incidence of first use co-use of substances sources of obtaining substances perceived friends' use perceived availability of substances when, where, and with who substance use is occurring modes of substance use administration reasons for use or non-use own attitudes about substance use perceived risk of use substance use advertising sources of help and treatment free time and activities role of citizens in government, confidence in government voting and political activism attitudes towards discrimination satisfaction with life domains healthy behaviors physical health symptoms Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-03-20
3.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 2 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39325)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988). This study contains the data for Form 2 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 2 restricted panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 2 also includes questions covering: Availability of drugs Confidence/trust in government Dating, marriage, and family Delinquency and victimization Expected future substance use Exposure to substance use Healthy behaviors, illness, COVID-19 Leisure time activities, high school and post-high school Methods of marijuana use Military: plans for service, draft opinion Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use Perceived friends' substance use Perceived risk of substance use Psychosocial domains: boredom, loneliness, self-esteem, depressive affect, social support, self-efficacy, risk taking Satisfaction with life domains Sources of help and treatment for substance use Sources of marijuana Substance use initiation Vaping, including nicotine, marijuana, flavoring, sources Voting, political activism NOTE: In 2020, school-based data collection was halted due to COVID-19. BY sample sizes were affected, and data for some questions on forms 2 and 3 were suppressed. The list of variables affected is found in the 2020 12th grade Codebook available through NAHDAP. Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details , including content areas included in all survey forms. NOTE: Researchers are encouraged to begin their work with the "core" data file, NAHDAP study 39223. Please see the User's Guide, IV. Working with the MTF Restricted Panel Data, for details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the MTF research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-05-01
4.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-up Form 3 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39389)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (forms 1-5 began in 1976; form 6 was added in 1989). This study contains the data for Form 3 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 3 Panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 3 also includes questions covering: Attitudes toward governmental policies and practices Dating and marriage: status, attitudes, expectations Ecological concerns, conservation of resources Happiness; satisfaction with life domains and self Health symptoms, healthy behaviors, COVID-19 Leisure time, including computer, cell phone, and social media use Local and global concerns Methods of marijuana use Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use Parenthood: attitudes, expectations Perceived friends' substance use Perceived risk of substance use Race relations Substance use consequences (alcohol, marijuana/cannabis, other illicit drugs) NOTE: In 2020, school-based data collection was halted due to COVID-19. BY sample sizes were affected, and data for some questions on forms 2 and 3 were suppressed. The list of variables affected is found in the 2020 12th grade Codebook available through NAHDAP. Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details, including content areas included in all survey forms. NOTE: Researchers are encouraged to begin their work with the "core" data file, NAHDAP study 39223. Please see the User's Guide, IV. Working with the MTF Restricted Panel Data, for details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-06-11
5.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 4 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39326)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988). This study contains the data for Form 4 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 4 restricted panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 4 also includes questions covering: Beer, Wine, hard liquor, wine coolers use Vaping sources Flavored, small, and large cigars Hookah, dissolvable tobacco, snus, and smokeless tobacco use Own attitudes and perceptions about substance use Perceived risk of substance use Perceived friends' substance use Perceived addictiveness of substances Legal Issues Regarding Drugs Delinquency, victimization, and feeling safe at school Vocational plans, aspirations, expectations Preferences regarding job characteristics Desirability of different working arrangements and settings Work ethic/success orientation Dating and marriage: status, attitudes, expectations Parenthood: attitudes, expectations Values surrounding marriage and family Personal materialism Ecological concerns, conservation of resources Attitudes toward governmental policies and practices Local and global concerns Voting behavior Attitudes toward the military as an institution and occupation Happiness; satisfaction with life domains and self Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-06-16
6.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 5 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1976-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39283)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (five forms from 1976-1988). This study contains the data for Form 5 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 5 restricted panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms, Form 5 also includes questions covering: Non-prescription substance use, including Ritalin, Adderall, Oxycontin, Vicodin, fentanyl Energy drinks/shots Flavored alcohol, alcohol+caffeine Flavored small and large cigars Hookah dissolvable tobacco, snus, smokeless tobacco Synthetic marijuana use Incidence of first use Perceived risk of substance use Own and others' attitudes and perceptions about substance use Exposure to substance use Substance use problems Reasons for substance use, abstention or stopping use Perceived availability of substances Expected future substance use Sources of help and treatment for substance use Job-related substance use testing Methods of substance use Satisfaction with life domains Interpersonal relationships Parenthood: status, attitudes, expectations Dating, marriage, and family: status, values, attitudes, expectations, sex roles Military: plans for service, attitudes toward the military as an institution and occupation Working arrangements and settings Work ethic/success orientation Leisure time: extent, activities, and attitudes Community involvement Voting and political activism Political interest and preference Concern for others, locally and globally Conservation of resources, ecological concerns, mass transit Attitudes towards discrimination Expectations concerning societal change Reactions to personal and social change Personal materialism Delinquency and victimization Psychosocial domains: boredom, loneliness, self-esteem, depressive affect,social support, self-efficacy, risk taking Healthy behaviors, illness, COVID-19 Post high school: status, plans, characteristics High school sport involvement, concussion Substance use education in high school Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details, including content areas included in all survey forms. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-03-20
7.
Monitoring the Future: Base Year & Follow-Up Form 6 Panel Data, Ages 18-30, United States, 1989-2021 [Restricted-Use] (ICPSR 39388)
Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.
The MTF study consists of six different survey forms (forms 1-5 began in 1976; form 6 was added in 1989). This study contains the data for Form 6 longitudinal panel participants. The MTF Form 6 Panel dataset includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and their young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). In addition to demographic-related questions and questions about lifetime, annual, and 30-day substance use that are included on all survey forms (see the core panel listing), Form 6 also includes questions covering: Attitudes toward governmental policies and practices Attitudes towards discrimination Dating, marriage, and family Delinquency and victimization Expected future substance use Flavored alcohol, alcohol+caffeine Health behaviors, COVID-19 High school: Delinquency, victimization, and feeling safe at school High school: scholastic status, objectives, experiences, activities Leisure time activities, high school and post-high school Methods of marijuana use Non-prescription substance use including Ritalin, Adderall, Oxycontin, Vicodin, Fentanyl Others' attitudes regarding drugs and drug users Own attitudes about substance use Perceived availability of substances Perceived risk of substance use Perception of others' substance use behaviors Psychosocial domains: boredom, loneliness, self-esteem, depressive affect, social support, self-efficacy, risk taking Reasons for non-use: crack, other cocaine Satisfaction with life Smokeless tobacco Substance use initiation Tobacco Promotional Activities Please see the study documentation available on the MTF Panel series page for question-specific details, including content areas included in all survey forms. NOTE: Researchers are encouraged to begin their work with the "core" data file, NAHDAP study 39223. Please see the User's Guide, section IV. Working with the MTF Restricted Panel Data, for details. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2025-06-11
8.
Monitoring the Future: Restricted-Use Panel Data, United States, 1976-2019 (ICPSR 37072)
Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.; Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Patrick, Megan E.
The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, and funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF has two components: MTF Main and MTF Panel. From its inception in 1975, the cross-sectional MTF Main study has collected data annually from nationally representative samples of 12,000-19,000 high school seniors in 12th grade located in approximately 135 schools nationwide. Beginning in 1991, similar annual cross-sectional surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted. In all, approximately 45,000 students annually respond to about 100 drug use and demographic questions, as well as to about 200 additional questions divided among multiple survey forms on other topics such as attitudes toward government, social institutions, race relations, changing gender roles, educational aspirations, occupational aims, and marital plans. The longitudinal MTF Panel study conducts follow-up surveys with representative subsamples of respondents from each 12th grade cohort participating in MTF Main. From each cohort, a sample of about 2,450 students are selected for longitudinal follow-up, with an oversampling of students who reported prior drug use during their 12th grade survey. Longitudinal follow-up currently spans modal ages 19-30 and 35-60. For surveys at modal ages 19-30, the sample is randomly split into two halves (approx. 1,225 each) to be followed every other year. One half-sample begins its first follow-up the year after high school (at modal age 19), and the other half-sample begins its first follow-up in the second year after high school (at modal age 20). Thus, six young adult follow-up (FU) surveys occur between modal ages 19-30, at modal ages 19/20 (FU1), 21/22 (FU2), 23/24 (FU3), 25/26 (FU4), 27/28 (FU5), and 29/30 (FU6). After age 30, respondents are surveyed every five years: 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (these are referred to as FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and FU surveys and include additional questions on life events and health. MTF Panel surveys for the young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted using mailed paper surveys from 1977-2017. In 2018 and 2019, a random half of all those aged 19-30 received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push). The FZ surveys (ages 35-60) were conducted using mailed paper surveys through the 2019 data collection. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.
2023-03-27