The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, and funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF has two components: MTF Main and MTF Panel.
The MTF Main study began with high school senior classes in 1975, and beginning in 1991, similar surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted annually. The survey draws separate, nationally-representative samples in 8th, 10th, and 12th grade, with about 100 schools and 10,000 students in each grade. For more information about the annual cross-sectional surveys, please visit the Public-Use Cross-Sectional Datasets or the Restricted-Use Cross-Sectional Datasets.
The longitudinal MTF Panel study extends the work of the cross-sectional MTF Main study by following a subsample of graduating seniors through the entire adult life course. Beginning with the class of 1976, a randomly selected sample of around 2,400 graduating seniors have taken follow up surveys every two years from ages 19–30. For young adults (19–30) (FU surveys), each cohort’s follow up sample is split into two random subsamples that are surveyed in alternate years (at ages 19/20, 21/22, 23/24, 25/26, 27/28, 29/30), so the Panel study obtains a representative sample from each cohort every year. Starting at age 35, respondents are surveyed every five years: 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and FU surveys and include additional questions on life events and health.
The Panel study now has over 120,000 individuals up to age 65* who were first surveyed in 12th grade at age 18. These data provide needed insight into the epidemiology and etiology of substance use and related behaviors, attitudes, and other factors. Repeating these annual cross-sectional surveys over time provides data to examine behavior change across history in consistent age segments of the adult life course and key subgroups. (*Age 65 data were first collected in 2023 and are forthcoming.)
The MTF Core Panel data includes data for the base year (BY) 12th grade surveys (modal age 18) and young adult follow-up FU surveys (modal ages 19-30). The adult FZ surveys are separated by decades: age 35, ages 40-45, ages 50-55, and age 60.
More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.