The Mobilization Puzzle: How Individual, Group, and Situational Dynamics Produce Extremist Outcomes, United States, 1974-2021 (ICPSR 38918)

Version Date: Oct 5, 2023

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Principal Investigator(s):
Michael Jensen, University of Maryland; Gary LaFree, University of Maryland

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38918.v1

Version V1

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Summary

Current research that seeks to inform terrorism prevention, intervention, and interdiction efforts has been hampered by at least three problems: the lack of adequate control groups, a tendency to conceptually conflate radicalization with mobilization, and a preponderance of research designs that only include data on the perpetrator or the event, but not both. This project addresses these shortcomings by collecting data that includes control groups consisting of non-violent offenders, non-mobilized ideologues, and unsuccessful terrorists, and by modeling mobilization as the interaction between individual characteristics, social networks, and event-level situational opportunities for action. The integrated approach of this research isolates the interactive factors that distinguish violent from nonviolent offenders, identifies the individual, network, and event-level variables that are significantly related to extremist mobilization, and determines which law enforcement interdiction strategies are most likely to succeed in stopping terrorist attacks.

This research expands on the NIJ-funded Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) and Social Networks of American Radicals (SoNAR) datasets to include event-level information on more than 1,400 United States-based extremist plots and financial crimes from 1974-2021. These event data can be linked to data on the individuals and networks contained in the PIRUS and SoNAR datasets, respectively, in order to build a fully relational database on radicalization characteristics, social-network dynamics, and event-level details and outcomes. Data collection used open-sources, including media reports, unsealed court documents, unclassified government reports, and other open-source archived content. To strengthen the reliability and validity of the analyses, at least 25% of the data were double coded, and the project team dedicated the last phase of data collection to conduct rigorous quality control. To analyze these data, the project team used three methods: descriptive and bivariate analyses, advanced regression methods with regularization, and multi-step configurational methods on a subset of 50 event cases.

These data are currently available as an Excel workbook. The "Plots" sheet contains data on premeditated violent and non-violent crimes. The "Financial Crimes" sheet contains data on financial crimes only. Please refer to the ICPSR README for more information.

Citation

Jensen, Michael, and LaFree, Gary. The Mobilization Puzzle: How Individual, Group, and Situational Dynamics Produce Extremist Outcomes, United States, 1974-2021. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-10-05. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38918.v1

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Funding

United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice (2019-ZA-CX-0004)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

City

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

1974 -- 2021

Date of Collection

2020 -- 2023

Data Collection Notes

  1. For more information on the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) dataset, including how to access data and documentation, please visit the project website hosted by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).
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Study Purpose

The purpose of this study was to examine successful, failed, and foiled extremist plots in the United States to understand how mobilization is related to factors at the individual perpetrator, social network, and event levels.

Study Design

Data collection used open-sources, including media reports, unsealed court documents, unclassified government reports, and other open-source archived content. Analytic data were structured and analyzed at the plot (event) level. To strengthen the reliability and validity of the analyses, at least 25% of the data were double coded, and the project team dedicated the last phase of data collection to conduct rigorous quality control. To analyze these data, the project team used three methods: descriptive and bivariate analyses, advanced regression methods with regularization, and multi-step configurational methods on a subset of 50 event cases.

Sample

Only plots occurring in the United States were included. Premeditated violent and non-violent plots, including financial crimes, were included. Exclusion criteria for plot data were foreign fighter travel, international plots involving U.S. persons, and vandalism. To be considered for inclusion as a financial crime/scheme, the crime must have involved illegal financial activity, an individual within the scheme must have been charged with a crime related to the financial activity, and the financial crime must have been ideologically motivated.

Time Method

Longitudinal: Cohort / Event-based

Universe

Premeditated terrorist plots and financial crimes linked to the subjects included in the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) dataset.

Unit(s) of Observation

Event/Process, Plot/Crime

Data Source

Social Networks of American Radicals (SoNAR) [Forthcoming]

Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS)

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Description of Variables

The following items are included for each event:

  • Dates for plot start and conclusion
  • Number of individuals involved, with ID numbers for other individuals involved or coordinated plots
  • Type of plot (non-violent, low casualty, mass casualty)
  • Plot and target location (state, city, corporation/individuals targeted, hard vs. soft target)
  • Attack or financial crime type
  • Type of weapons used or intended to be used
  • Number of fatalities and wounded
  • Preparatory actions taken by the perpetrator
  • Suspicious activity noted by others
  • If the plot was successful, foiled, or failed, and reasons why
  • If applicable, whether other actors were involved or aware of the plot (e.g., law enforcement, informants, undercover agents, citizens)
  • If the plot resulted in a raid, criminal charges, and/or convictions

Please refer to the P.I. codebooks for operational definitions used throughout the study.

Response Rates

Not applicable.

Presence of Common Scales

Not applicable.

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Original Release Date

2023-10-05

Version History

2023-10-05 ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection:

  • Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.

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Weight

Not applicable.

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Notes

  • These data are part of NACJD's Fast Track Release and are distributed as they were received from the data depositor. The files have been zipped by NACJD for release, but not checked or processed except for the removal of direct identifiers. Users should refer to the accompanying readme file for a brief description of the files available with this collection and consult the investigator(s) if further information is needed.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

NACJD logo

This dataset is maintained and distributed by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD), the criminal justice archive within ICPSR. NACJD is primarily sponsored by three agencies within the U.S. Department of Justice: the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, and the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.