Presidential Uses of Force During the Cold War: Aggregation, Truncation, and Temporal Dynamics (ICPSR 1254)

Version Date: Mar 8, 2002

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Principal Investigator(s):
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Florida State University; Will H. Moore, Florida State University

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01254.v1

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Summary

This study identifies three methodological issues that affect inferences drawn in studies of presidential decisions to use force: aggregation, truncation, and dynamics. The authors suggest that a dichotomous measure of uses of force introduces aggregation bias, while the decision to examine only major uses of force introduces truncation bias. In addition, they argue that the presence of rivalry creates temporal dependence or dynamics in the use of force series. They re-examine the empirical findings reported in a seminal study of United States presidents' use of force during the Cold War (Ostrom and Job, 1986). The findings demonstrate the importance of these three methodological issues. Results of a Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model show dynamics in the use of force series. Contrary to Ostrom and Job, the authors find that international variables have a larger substantive effect on the president's decision to use force than political variables like approval and domestic variables like economic performance.

Citation

Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Moore, Will H. Presidential Uses of Force During the Cold War: Aggregation, Truncation, and Temporal Dynamics. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2002-03-08. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01254.v1

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Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Data Collection Notes

  1. (1) The file submitted is mandm2002.zip, which contains mmvarlist02.txt, a dictionary describing the variables, Readme.txt, a description of the study, Results.log, the results from the various analyses, force49-76final.csv, a comma-delimited (ASCII) version of the data, force49-76final.dta, a Stata version of the data, and force49-76final.xls, an Excel version of the data. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

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Original Release Date

2002-03-08

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:

  • Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Will H. Moore. Presidential Uses of Force During the Cold War: Aggregation, Truncation, and Temporal Dynamics. ICPSR01254-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2002-03-08. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01254.v1

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Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.