Innovative Methodologies for Assessing Radicalization Risk: Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis, United States, 2001-2019 (ICPSR 38226)

Version Date: Apr 27, 2023

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Principal Investigator(s):
Jeff Gruenewald, University of Arkansas

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38226.v1

Version V1

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Summary

This study examined the geospatial contexts of where terrorism incidents occur, where terrorists plan and prepare for their crimes, and where terrorists reside in the United States. The researchers examined data linked to terrorism-related incidents in the United States from the time of the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 through 2019. Using these data, the researchers applied innovative analytical methodologies of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations (CACC) to evaluate their utility in assessing risk of terrorism.

Risk terrain modeling is a method for identifying situational, place-based risk factors most associated with locations where terrorist incidents are likely to be planned or occur. This method looks at specific aspects of the physical landscape, such as locations of buildings or parking lots. The place-based analysis approach to terrorism investigation represents a shift from the conventional research emphasis on targeting suspicious persons by their demographic or other traits. This approach investigates the importance of location in explanations of crime and terrorism.

According to the American Terrorism Study, during this time between 2001 (after 9/11 and 2019) there were 296 terrorism incidents and 617 pre-incident activities occurred where the state was known. In addition, there were 420 known residences tied to terrorism-related incidents in particular states.

Citation

Gruenewald, Jeff. Innovative Methodologies for Assessing Radicalization Risk: Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis, United States, 2001-2019. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-04-27. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38226.v1

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Funding

United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice (2017-ZA-CX-0004)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

Census Tract

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

2001-09-11 -- 2019-12-31
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Study Purpose

There are two major objectives for this research study.

  • Identify demographic and social characteristics of communities (i.e., counties and census tracts) that, when considered in combination, form dominant profiles for communities at most risk for experiencing terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities.
  • Identify situational, place-based risk factors most associated with places where terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities are most likely to occur.

The project was guided by six research questions:

  • How are terrorists' pre-incident (residence and preparatory locations) and incident activities (successful attacks/crimes and unsuccessful plots) spatially distributed across the U.S.?
  • What are the most prominent combinations of community characteristics in places where terrorists' pre-incident and incident activities are most likely to occur? How do these pre-incident and incident characteristics differ?
  • What are the similarities and differences in prominent case configurations across different levels of aggregation (i.e., county and census tract)?
  • What is the distribution of risk across micro-level places?
  • What built, physical infrastructure characteristics contribute to the risk associated with pre-incident and incident activities?
  • What prominent case configurations (or patterns) emerge when accounting for microlevel places nested within communities?

Study Design

To be included in the final datasets an incident, preparatory act, or residence had to be coded to the city level. Only terrorism events occurring after September 11, 2001 through the end of 2019 are included.

Time Method

Time Series

Universe

Terrorism incidents in the United States between the years 2001 (after 9/11) and 2019.

Unit(s) of Observation

Event / Process

Data Source

Data on terrorists' pre-incident behaviors (i.e., residences and preparatory) and incident activities are obtained from the American Terrorism Study (ATS) which is a compilation of data based on federal criminal cases resulting from indictment under an FBI investigation for "terrorism or terrorism-related events."

Community and environmental data are derived from open-access data portal, InfoGroup, and the U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey).

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Description of Variables

Key factors or measures for this study, present in each dataset, include the political ideological category connected to the incident, type of most destructive weapon used or intended to use during the attack, the group structure of the perpetrator(s), who or what the intended target was, and whether or not the attack was successful.

  • DS1: There are 296 incidents which were the target locations of planned and executed attacks. (109 variables)
  • DS2: There are 617 preparatory acts for the location of events involved in the planning process (e.g. store where weapons were purchased). (110 variables)
  • DS3: There are 420 residences that show the perpetrator's last known place of residence while preparing for the attack. (111 variables)

About 87% of the variables in each dataset are present and equivalent to variables in the other two datasets. The overlap primarily covers geography (census tract, county, and state), census tract / county characteristics (categorized into percentiles) and a count of 67 various types of businesses, organizations, entities, and locations (elements of the environment).

Response Rates

Not applicable.

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Original Release Date

2023-04-27

Version History

2023-04-27 ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection:

  • Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.

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Weight

Not applicable.

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Notes

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

  • ICPSR usually offers files in multiple formats for researchers to be able to access data and documentation in formats that work well within their needs. If you have questions about the accessibility of materials distributed by ICPSR or require further assistance, please visit ICPSR’s Accessibility Center.

NACJD logo

This dataset is maintained and distributed by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD), the criminal justice archive within ICPSR. NACJD is primarily sponsored by three agencies within the U.S. Department of Justice: the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, and the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.