Showing 1 – 3 of 3 results.
Curated
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise (ICPSR 23220)
Released/updated on: 2008-09-05
Geographic coverage: United States
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.
Curated
ABC News/Washington Post Check-In Poll, September 2000 (ICPSR 3073)
Released/updated on: 2001-04-17
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2000-09-28--2000-10-01
This poll, fielded September 28-October 1, 2000, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they intended to vote in the November 7, 2000, presidential election and for whom they would vote if the election were held that day, given a choice between Vice President Al Gore and Connecticut senator Joseph Lieberman (Democratic Party), Texas governor George W. Bush and former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (Republican Party), conservative commentator Pat Buchanan and educator Ezola Foster (Reform Party), and consumer advocate Ralph Nader and activist Winona LaDuke (Green Party). Respondents were asked which candidate they trusted to do a better job holding taxes down, improving education and the schools, holding down the cost of gasoline and home heating oil, holding down health care costs, and helping the middle class. Views were sought on whether the United States emergency supply of oil should be used to contain costs this winter or saved for a larger emergency, and whether President Clinton released 5 percent of the nation's oil reserves because it was best for the country or to boost Gore's presidential campaign. Additional topics covered the respondents' impression of Clinton as a person and his policies and programs, whether a smaller government with fewer services was preferable to a larger government with many services, and whether respondents intended to watch the televised October 3 presidential debate and the televised October 5 vice-presidential debate. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, political party, political orientation, voter registration and participation history, education, religion, Hispanic origin, urban/rural residence, and household income.
Curated
ABC News/Washington Post Foreign Policy Poll, October 1981 (ICPSR 8017)
Released/updated on: 1992-02-16
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1981-10-01--1981-10-31
This special-topic poll is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. This data collection assesses respondents' attitudes toward foreign policy under the Reagan administration. Included were questions measuring attitudes toward the Soviet Union, the relative military strength of the United States, and American relations with Arab nations, Israel, and western Europe. Respondents were asked questions on human rights, nuclear war, the spread of Communism, oil supply, and United States allies. Demographic information was collected, including respondent's race, age, sex, employment, number of children, and religion.