Showing 1 – 11 of 11 results.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "Inflation expectations and time variations in the oil price pass-through" (ICPSR 235802)
Released/updated on: 2025-09-11
Previous literature suggests that the pass-through of oil price shocks to inflation rates became weaker since the 1970s. I use a time-varying parameter VAR to show that this trend has recently been reversed with headline and core inflation rates responding more sensitive to oil price shocks. Based on a counterfactual analysis, I offer evidence that increasingly important second round effects propagated via inflation expectations play a key role for these dynamics. Finally, I illustrate that oil price shocks in general and this expectation channel more specifically contributed substantially to the recent surge in inflation rates.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "A Reappraisal of Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil" (ICPSR 218641)
Released/updated on: 2025-06-17
Time period: 1973-01-01--2021-12-31
Replication package for "A Reappraisal of Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil"Abstract: We replicate Baumeister and Kilian (2012) to reappraise real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil against the end-of-month no-change forecast, the equivalent naive benchmark used for asset prices. We find no consistently significant improvements in the predictive accuracy of model-based forecasts over this naive benchmark at short horizons. Only futures-based forecasts consistently outperform the end-of-month no-change forecast, and only at longer horizons. These results challenge the consensus on the predictability of the real price of crude oil and the merits of alternative forecast approaches. Our findings motivate broader reassessment and replication of forecasting models of temporally aggregated series.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "New Evidence on Crude Oil Market Efficiency" (ICPSR 193064)
Released/updated on: 2023-10-07
Time period: 1989-01-01--2019-12-31
This paper examines the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in crude oil in the face of the "financialization of the commodity markets" and the "fracking revolution". The generalized spectral derivative test (Hong and Lee 2005) is applied to test market efficiency in both spot and futures markets of WTI and Brent benchmarks. A stochastic dominance test (Linton et al. 2005) is used to investigate arbitrage opportunities across markets and across benchmarks. We find that financialization of the commodity markets has made each market more efficient but also created more arbitrage opportunities in spot-futures markets at both benchmarks. Fracking revolution fragmented oil markets and drove huge price differentials across benchmarks, yet it made little impact on market efficiency in individual markets or between markets.
Curated
CBS News/New York Times Monthly Poll, June 2010 (ICPSR 31576)
Released/updated on: 2011-10-04
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2010-06-01--2010-06-30
This poll, fielded June 16-20, 2010, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. A national sample of 1,259 adults was surveyed, including an oversample of Gulf Coast residents. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way that Barack Obama was handling his job as president, the economy, and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, whether they approved of the way Congress was handling its job, whether they thought the country was headed in the right direction, and what they thought was the most important problem facing the country. Respondents were queried on how they would rate the condition of the national economy, whether they thought Obama had strong qualities of leadership, whether they though he had a strong plan for creating jobs, developing new sources of energy, and dealing with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and how much confidence they had in Obama's ability to handle a crisis. Respondents were also asked how much they thought Obama cared about the needs and problems of people whose lives had been directly affected by the oil spill, whether they favored allowing increased drilling for oil and natural gas off the United States coast, whether they thought the United States was too dependent on other countries for its supply of oil, their views on government regulation of oil companies, whether they would favor increased taxes on gasoline if it could help pay for the development of renewable sources of energy, and how likely they thought that in the next 25 years the United States would develop an alternative to oil. Respondents were queried on how much they trusted oil companies to act in the best interest of the public, whether they approved of the way BP was handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, how much control they thought the Obama Administration had over whether BP would pay for the damages caused by the oil spill, how confident they were that BP would fairly compensate those affected by the oil spill, how much they blamed weak federal regulations on offshore drilling for the oil spill in the Gulf, how long they thought it would take BP to stop the flow of oil into the Gulf, and why they thought it was taking so long to stop. Respondents were also asked who they thought was mostly to blame for the oil spill, who they trusted more to handle the clean-up of the oil spill, BP or the federal government, whether they thought that BP was doing all it reasonably could do to clean up the oil spill, whether they though that members of the Obama Administration and BP were telling the truth about the oil spill, whether they thought that the wildlife in the Gulf of Mexico could recover from the oil spill, and whether they thought that the economy in the Gulf coast could recover from the oil spill. Information was collected on whether respondents thought that the moratorium on offshore drilling was a good idea, whether they themselves or a member of their family was directly or indirectly affected by the oil spill, whether they were directly affected by Hurricane Katrina, whether they would be less likely to buy gasoline from a BP station as a result of the oil spill, whether they had to change their vacation plans due to the oil spill, and whether they or someone in their household worked in the oil or fishing industry. Finally, respondents were asked if they watched or listened to President Obama's speech about the oil spill, how they would rate their household's financial situation, and how concerned they were that they or someone else in the household might lose their job in the next 12 months. Demographic information includes sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, employment status, religious preference, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), political party affiliation, political philosophy, voter registration status, and whether respondents thought of themselves as born again Christians.
Curated
CBS News/New York Times Monthly Poll, November 1990 (ICPSR 9617)
Released/updated on: 2011-01-20
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1990-11-13--1990-11-15
This data collection is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that evaluate the Bush presidency and solicit opinions on a variety of political and social issues. Demographic information collected includes sex, age, race, education, family income, religion, ethnicity, political orientation, party preference, and voting behavior. Issues addressed in this survey include Bush's handling of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, whether the United States did the right thing by sending troops to Saudi Arabia and whether Bush had explained the situation in the Middle East well enough so that people understood why troops were sent, whether Bush was correct to send additional troops to the Persian Gulf, whether respondents anticipated the United States military fighting Iraq or a peaceful resolution to the situation, whether the Bush Administration tried hard enough to reach a diplomatic solution or was too quick to involve American military forces, whether the United States should commence military action against Iraq soon or wait, and whether the United States' main purpose in sending troops was to fulfill its duty to protect its friends or to prevent the price of oil from increasing too much if the Iraqis controlled oil fields in the Middle East. Respondents were asked if the following were good enough reasons for taking military action against Iraq: to restore the government of Kuwait and defend Saudi Arabia against aggression, to stop Saddam Hussein from developing nuclear weapons, or to protect the source of much of the world's oil. Other questions probed for respondents' opinions on whether Congress should have to vote on a declaration of war or if the president should be allowed to send troops into combat when there is no time to wait for Congress to act, and whether who is elected makes any real difference. A series of questions dealing with family dinnertime habits and the relative importance of eating dinner together as a family was also asked, along with a series of questions dealing with home mortgages, Social Security deductions, and the number of times the respondent changed jobs and moved in the last five years.
Curated
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise (ICPSR 23220)
Released/updated on: 2008-09-05
Geographic coverage: United States
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.
Curated
ABC News/Washington Post Middle East Poll, August 1990 (ICPSR 9463)
Released/updated on: 2008-07-31
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1990-08-08--1990-08-08
This survey solicits opinions on the situation in the Middle East caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Respondents were asked if they favored or opposed sending United States military forces to defend Saudi Arabia, if they favored or opposed using the United States Navy to blockade Iraq's ports, if the United States should keep military forces in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf until Iraq withdraws its troops from Kuwait even if it meant keeping those forces there for many months or even years, and if they favored or opposed the United States taking stronger military action against Iraq if Iraq took American hostages. Respondents also were asked if they thought the oil companies would cooperate with Bush and avoid arising oil and gas prices, how important it was to include troops from Arab countries in the joint forces against Iraq, if they thought the United States was going to get involved in a war with Iraq and who would win this war, if the invasion of Kuwait would have a major negative impact on the United States economy, and if comparisons between Saddam Hussein and Hitler and Stalin were fair. Background information on respondents includes political alignment, age, race, sex, and state/region of residence.
Curated
ABC News/Washington Post Poll, April 1986 (ICPSR 8580)
Released/updated on: 2007-07-09
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1986-04-24--1986-04-24
This survey covers a variety of political and social issues. Respondents were asked to rate Reagan's performance as president, to comment on United States policy and actions in the Middle East including the air strike against Libya, to evaluate the state of the nation's economy, and to assess the reliability of our allies. They were also questioned about the effect of falling oil prices on the nation's economy and about their own personal financial situations. Other topics included legalization of marijuana, successes of the civil rights movement, which political party the respondent supports, and the likelihood that the respondent will vote in the next election. Demographic characteristics were also recorded.
Curated
CBS News Monthly Poll, August 2005 (ICPSR 4398)
Released/updated on: 2007-01-24
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2005-08-01--2005-08-31
This poll, conducted August 29-31, 2005, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President George W. Bush and his handling of the presidency and issues such as the economy and Hurricane Katrina. A series of questions focused on the effects of the recent rise in gasoline and oil prices, who or what was responsible, whether prices were expected to rise in coming months, and whether higher gasoline prices would change their travel plans, driving habits, future car purchases, or lead to household spending cuts. Questions involving the war in Iraq included whether it was worth the costs, whether President Bush was accurately describing the situation in Iraq, what the possible effects of a withdrawal of United States troops would be, and what was the likelihood that Iraq would become a stable democracy. Views were also sought on Supreme Court nominee John Roberts, including how important it was that the United States Senate understood his position on issues such as abortion before confirming his appointment, whether the Republican and Democratic parties would be able to work together to conduct a fair and non-partisan confirmation hearing, and whether he would be confirmed. Additional topics addressed airport security, the success of the United States' war against terrorism, Cindy Sheehan (the peace activist who camped outside President Bush's ranch in Texas), and how often respondents watched network television news programs. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, religious preference, voter registration status, for whom the respondent voted in the 2004 presidential election, whether there were college students and children under 18 living in the household, and whether the respondent or a family member was currently in the United States armed forces.
Curated
Oil Price Volatility and U.S. Macroeconomic Activity (ICPSR 1322)
Released/updated on: 2006-01-31
Oil shocks exert influence on macroeconomic activity through various channels, many of which imply a symmetric effect. However, the effect can also be asymmetric. In particular, sharp oil price changes "either increases or decreases" may reduce aggregate output temporarily because they delay business investment by raising uncertainty or induce costly sectoral resource reallocation. Consistent with these asymmetric-effect hypotheses, the authors find that a volatility measure constructed using daily crude oil futures prices has a negative and significant effect on future gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the period 1984-2004. Moreover, the effect becomes more significant after oil price changes are also included in the regression to control for the symmetric effect. The evidence here provides economic rationales for Hamilton's (2003) nonlinear oil shock measure: It captures overall effects, both symmetric and asymmetric, of oil price shocks on output.
Curated
ABC News/Washington Post Check-In Poll, September 2000 (ICPSR 3073)
Released/updated on: 2001-04-17
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2000-09-28--2000-10-01
This poll, fielded September 28-October 1, 2000, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they intended to vote in the November 7, 2000, presidential election and for whom they would vote if the election were held that day, given a choice between Vice President Al Gore and Connecticut senator Joseph Lieberman (Democratic Party), Texas governor George W. Bush and former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (Republican Party), conservative commentator Pat Buchanan and educator Ezola Foster (Reform Party), and consumer advocate Ralph Nader and activist Winona LaDuke (Green Party). Respondents were asked which candidate they trusted to do a better job holding taxes down, improving education and the schools, holding down the cost of gasoline and home heating oil, holding down health care costs, and helping the middle class. Views were sought on whether the United States emergency supply of oil should be used to contain costs this winter or saved for a larger emergency, and whether President Clinton released 5 percent of the nation's oil reserves because it was best for the country or to boost Gore's presidential campaign. Additional topics covered the respondents' impression of Clinton as a person and his policies and programs, whether a smaller government with fewer services was preferable to a larger government with many services, and whether respondents intended to watch the televised October 3 presidential debate and the televised October 5 vice-presidential debate. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, political party, political orientation, voter registration and participation history, education, religion, Hispanic origin, urban/rural residence, and household income.