Showing 1 – 50 of 54 results.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Afrobarometer Round 5: The Quality of Democracy and Governance in Senegal, 2013 (ICPSR 35541)
Released/updated on: 2015-08-19
Geographic coverage: Senegal, Africa, Global, Sub-Saharan Africa
Time period: 2013-02-18--2013-03-02
The Afrobarometer is a comparative series of public attitude surveys that collects and disseminates data regarding Africans' views on democracy, governance, the economy, civil society, and related issues. This particular data collection was concerned with the attitudes and opinions of the citizens of Senegal, and includes a number of questions about economic growth, parity, and recent political events, designed specifically for the Senegal survey. The data are collected from a nationally representative sample in face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent's choice. Standard topics for the Afrobarometer include attitudes toward and evaluations of democracy, governance and economic conditions, political participation, national identity, and social capital. In addition, Round 5 surveys include special modules on taxation; gender issues; crime, conflict and insecurity; globalization; and social service delivery. The surveys also collect a large set of socio-demographic indicators such as age, gender, education level, poverty level, language and ethnicity, and religious affiliation, as well as political party affiliation. Afrobarometer Round 5 surveys were implemented in 35 countries.
Curated
Aggregate Economic Data, United States, 1947-1989 (ICPSR 1093)
Released/updated on: 1996-01-03
Geographic coverage: United States
These data and/or computer programs are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the INVESTIGATOR(S) if further information is desired.
Curated
The Analysis of Budget Consolidations: Concepts, Research Designs and Measurement (ICPSR 22780)
Released/updated on: 2008-06-25
Geographic coverage: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Portugal, Iceland, Global, Spain, New Zealand, Greece, Canada, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Norway, Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Australia, France, Germany
Fiscal adjustments have been examined from different perspectives in the literature. However, the conceptual approaches to the analysis of budget consolidations vary substantially. Therefore different approaches to the analysis of fiscal adjustments are discussed in a first step. It is shown that the choices regarding the underlying concepts lead to specific research designs and influence the appropriate empirical method. In a second step, the determinants of budget consolidations are examined empirically in four different research designs for 23 industrialized countries in the 1990s. The analysis shows that the results vary depending on the method applied. However, economic variables seem to play the most important role in explaining the consolidation performance.
Curated
British Economic Imperialism, 1869-1914 (ICPSR 7738)
Released/updated on: 1992-02-16
Geographic coverage: Great Britain, Europe, Global
Time period: 1869-01-01--1914-01-01
These data are a time series of 46 cases, one for each year from 1869 to 1914, consisting of 134 variables that record information on various aspects of the British economy. Variables include raw values, nine-year moving averages, deviations from the average, and deviations from the linear trend for such quantities as British investment abroad, British gross domestic fixed capital, British exports and imports to the British Empire and to other parts of the world, and the number of British alliances. Data were collected from the most recent available studies in economic history, econometrics, and political science. In every instance, the source considered the most authoritative by the relevant discipline was used to collect the data.
Curated
CBS News/New York Times Monthly Poll, September 2009 (ICPSR 27805)
Released/updated on: 2011-05-09
Geographic coverage: United States
This poll, fielded September 19-23, 2009, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way Barack Obama was handling the presidency, the situations in Iraq and in Afghanistan, health care and the economy, whether they thought the country was on the right track, how they would rate the condition of the national economy and whether they thought the economy would get better. Respondents were also asked questions about the economic recession, whether they believed the stimulus package had made the economy better, whether the stimulus package would make the economy better in the future, and whether it was acceptable to raise the deficit to create jobs and stimulate growth. Several questions about health care were included that asked respondents how much change was needed in the health care system, how changes to the health care system would affect the Medicare program, whether they favored government administered health insurance plans, how satisfied they were with the quality of health care they were receiving, whether they were satisfied with their health care costs, whether they believed health care coverage could be increased without increasing the budget deficit, whether fixing the cost or providing coverage for the uninsured had the higher priority, and whether the respondent would consider public health care that anyone could join at any age. Other topics that were covered included, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq, respondents' opinion of Michelle Obama, how the federal government should use taxpayer's money, how the deficit should be handled, personal finances, and job security. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, perceived social class, religious preference, whether the respondent considered themselves to be a born-again Christian, and voter registration status and participation history.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
CBS News/New York Times National Callback Poll, May #1, 2012 (ICPSR 34614)
Released/updated on: 2013-05-09
Geographic coverage: United States
This poll, the first of two fielded May 2012, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. Respondents were asked how well Barack Obama was handling the presidency, foreign policy, the economy, the situation with Afghanistan, the nation's housing and mortgage crisis, and gasoline prices. Opinions were collected on whether Congress was performing their job well, on the state of the national economy, federal income taxes, the federal tax policy on capital gains, and whether respondents felt things in this country were going in the right direction. Respondents were also queried as to whether Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would be able to bring real change to Washington, as well as several questions regarding their abilities to make the right decisions on various issues and be an effective military leader. Additional topics include women's health issues, economic concerns, the price of gasoline, the home mortgage crisis, the 2010 health care law, the suspension of Rick Santorum's campaign, the John Edwards trial, and the level of attention the respondents paid to the 2012 presidential campaigns. This collection also contains information from a call back poll within the same timeframe, including respondents' approval of Barack Obama's performance as president, the condition of the national economy, and whether respondents would vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. Multiple questions also asked about respondents' views concerning same-sex marriage, including whether respondents had a close friend or relative who is gay or lesbian, and if respondents support legal recognition of same-sex marriage. Demographic information includes sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, employment status, religious preference, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), political party affiliation, political philosophy, whether respondents were registered to vote, and whether respondents thought of themselves as born-again Christians.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
CBS News Poll, March 2014 (ICPSR 36196)
Released/updated on: 2015-11-19
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2014-03-20--2014-03-23
This poll, fielded in March of 2014, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. Respondents were asked their opinions on various topics including government leaders, the Obama administration, United State Congress, the 2014 congressional election, the economy, the Affordable Care Act, Pope Francis, and the Tea Party movement. There are also a series of questions regarding cellular and land-line phone use, Russian troops entering Ukraine, and potential terrorist attacks in the United States. Demographic information includes age, race, ethnicity, marital status, education level, household income, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), voter registration status, political party affiliation, and political philosophy.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
CBS News Poll, October #2 2013 (ICPSR 36062)
Released/updated on: 2015-07-15
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 2013-10-18--2013-10-21
This poll, the second fielded in October of 2013, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. Respondents were asked their opinions on various topics including government leaders, the Obama administration, Congress, the economy, the government shut down, the debt ceiling, the Affordable Care Act, immigration, and the Tea Party movement. There are also a series of questions regarding cellular and land-line phone use. Demographic information includes age, race, ethnicity, marital status, education level, household income, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), voter registration status, political party affiliation, and political philosophy.
Self-published
COEP Replication Package for "Women’s Property Rights Equality and Entrepreneurial Activity" (ICPSR 209795)
Released/updated on: 2024-10-21
Entrepreneurship is shaped by institutions. However, past research has largely assumed that everyone has equal property rights even though women often operate under a different property rights structure and have fewer legal rights than men. We fill a gap in the literature by examining how the property rights of women impacts female entrepreneurship in a panel countries using data on property rights from the Economic Freedom of the World dataset and data on entrepreneurship from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. We find that better protection of property rights for women is associated with more the female entrepreneurship relative to male entrepreneurship.
Curated
Comparing Manufacturing Export Growth Across States: What Accounts for the Differences? (ICPSR 1234)
Released/updated on: 2001-04-02
Geographic coverage: United States
The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. The authors use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state's manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were concentrated in foreign markets whose purchases from the United States expanded faster than the national increase in exports. The competitive effect is what remains after accounting for these two effects. The authors find that the competitive effect, which in previous research was related to increases in human capital per worker, is the key determinant of a state's relative export performance. Furthermore, the industry mix and destination effects, which are of similar importance, are generally dominated by the competitive effect in accounting for a state's relative export performance.
Self-published
Comparing the Growth and Predictive Performance of a Traditional Oral Reading Fluency Measure to an Experimental Novel Measure (ICPSR 156501)
Released/updated on: 2021-12-17
Time period: 2017-09-01--2019-06-30
Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency (CBM-R) is used as an indicator of reading proficiency, and to measure at risk students’ response to reading interventions to help ensure effective instruction. The purpose of this study was to compare model-based WCPM scores (CORE) to Traditional CBM-R WCPM scores to determine which provides more reliable growth estimates and demonstrates better predictive performance of reading comprehension and state reading test scores. Results indicated that in general, CORE had better (a) within-growth properties (smaller SDs of slope estimates and higher reliability), and (b) predictive performance (lower RMSE, and higher R-squared, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC values). These results suggest increased measurement precision for the model-based CORE scores compared to Traditional CBM-R, providing preliminary evidence that CORE can be used for consequential assessment.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "Dynamic development accounting and relative income traps" (ICPSR 237105)
Released/updated on: 2025-09-22
Time period: 1950-01-01--2020-01-01
This archive holds data and replication code for Imam and Temple, "Dynamic Development Accounting...". The abstract of that paper reads as follows: Recent work suggests that cross-country convergence has strengthened over time. Here we explore mobility and convergence in relative income and relative total factor productivity (TFP) using finite state Markov chains. We find that low-income countries rarely improve their position relative to the US. Since capital-output ratios have approached or exceeded the US level and human capital is converging, the persistence of low relative income seems to originate in low relative TFP. We study the dynamics of relative TFP, how they have changed, and how they interact with absolute levels of human capital, casting new light on the future of convergence.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "Global shocks and the debt-growth nexus" (ICPSR 237688)
Released/updated on: 2025-12-05
Time period: 2000-01-01--2019-01-01
This paper re-examines the relationship between debt and growth with and without the influence of global shocks for a panel of 22 economies from 2000 to 2019. The analysis introduces an approach that accounts for the complexity of global factors and estimates the debt-to-growth and growth-to-debt nexus for household, corporate, and public debt from a purely idiosyncratic perspective. The results reveal a multifactor structure: global shocks shape household and public debt, whereas corporate debt remains largely idiosyncratic. These global shocks alter the strength and significance of the idiosyncratic component of the relationship, underscoring their critical role in identifying the debt-growth nexus.
Self-published
ECIN Replication Package for "Improving tax revenues in the emerging markets: A Laffer curve analysis" (ICPSR 242362)
Released/updated on: 2026-03-15
Time period: 1998-01-01--2022-01-01, 2005-01-01--2019-01-01
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can significantly improve their tax-to-GDP ratios by expanding the tax base and strengthening institutional quality. This paper develops a neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents- Ricardian and non-Ricardian households- to examine fiscal capacity using a Laffer curve framework. It highlights two key constraints in EMDEs: a large untaxed population-including exempt and informally employed individuals, and institutional weakness reflected in tax evasion, poor audits, and weak compliance norms. Non-Ricardians are untaxed; Ricardians may evade or pay taxes. Results show that raising tax rates alone is ineffective; broader compliance, limited exemptions, and institutional reforms are essential.
Self-published
Economic growth in Germany, 1500-1850 (ICPSR 155901)
Released/updated on: 2021-12-02
Time period: 1500-01-01--1860-01-01
New data are used to construct a time series of real GDP in Germany for the period 1500–1850 using an indirect output estimation technique that relies on wages, prices, and sectoral employment. Until the mid-seventeenth century, real GDP per capita moved inversely with population. The eighteenth century saw a modest rise of output per head. From the late 1810s economic growth gradually accelerated. The results shed new light on the reversal of fortunes in early modern Europe and the transition from a Malthusian regime to modern economic growth.
Curated
Eurobarometer 60.1: Citizenship and Sense of Belonging, Fraud, and the European Parliament, October-November 2003 (ICPSR 3991)
Released/updated on: 2010-06-15
Geographic coverage: Europe, United Kingdom, Portugal, Global, Spain, Greece, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Italy, France, Germany
Time period: 2003-10-01--2003-11-07
This round of Eurobarometer surveys queried respondents on standard Eurobarometer measures, such as how satisfied they were with their present life, whether they attempted to persuade others close to them to share their views on subjects they held strong opinions about, whether they discussed political matters, and what the European Union's priorities should be. Additional questions focused on the respondents' knowledge of and opinions about the European Union (EU), including sources of information about the EU and whether their country had benefited from being an EU member. Respondents were asked questions concerning citizenship and their overall feeling of belonging, such as what was most important to them: family, friendship, work, the arts/culture, politics, health, or money. Respondents were asked how important the following values were to them: rule of law, respect for human life, human rights, individual freedom, democracy, tolerance, peace, or solidarity. Respondents were asked if they agreed that the State intervened too much in their lives, criminals needed help and understanding, immigrants were a threat to their way of life, economic growth must be a priority even if it affects the environment, and that free competition was the best guarantee for economic prosperity. Respondents were also asked if they'd be willing to learn one or more foreign language and what would be the motivation for doing so (i.e., to use on holidays abroad, to get a better job, to be able to understand people from other cultures, or for personal satisfaction), if they'd be interested or involved in the sports, arts and culture, music, and lifestyles of other countries in the EU and in countries outside of the EU, toward which country they felt the greatest affinity, whether the United States and the EU played a positive or negative role regarding peace in the world, fighting terrorism, growth of the world's economy, the fight against poverty in the world, and the protection of the environment. Additional questions focused on fraud and whether respondents had read or seen anything about fraud, tax evasion, money laundering, or counterfeiting of goods in their country, in other countries of the EU, in the countries which are candidates to join the EU, or elsewhere in the world. Respondents were asked what type of fraud worried them the most (e.g., hacking, pirating software, illegal data trading, counterfeiting of goods, commercial fraud like cheating on prices, weights, and goods, customs fraud, VAT fraud, or misappropriation of aids and grants), how well the media informed those in the EU about various types of fraud in the other countries of the EU as well as in their respective country, and whether using the police force, customs services, taxation authority, courts, private auditing firms, or the media was the most effective way to fight the EU and its budget from being defrauded. Respondents were also asked questions regarding the European Parliament, specifically how many European Parliament elections they voted in and if they were going to vote in the next one, how much impact the European Parliament had on their everyday lives, and whether the European Parliament election campaign should mainly focus on agriculture, environment, employment, immigration, education, foreign policy, enlargement of the EU, or the rights of the EU citizen. Those queried were also asked if they were interested in knowing more about the European Parliament whether via the television, radio, Internet, or newspapers. Background information includes gender, age, marital status, level of education, current occupation, household income, who contributed most to the household income, whether the respondent resided in a rural area or village, a small town, or a large town, and how much toward the left or right did the respondent consider their political views.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Eurobarometer 75.2: Economic Crisis, Volunteer Work, the Environment, Audiovisual Interests, and Helplines for Social Services, April-May 2011 (ICPSR 34265)
Released/updated on: 2015-09-16
Geographic coverage: Cyprus, Portugal, Global, Malta, Greece, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Latvia, Luxembourg, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania, Hungary, Europe, United Kingdom, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, European Union, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Germany, Estonia
Time period: 2011-04-13--2011-05-04
The Eurobarometer series is a unique cross-national and cross-temporal survey program conducted on behalf of the European Commission. These surveys regularly monitor public opinion in the European Union (EU) member countries and consist of standard modules and special topic modules. The standard modules address attitudes towards European unification, institutions and policies, measurements for general socio-political orientations, as well as respondent and household demographics. The special topic modules address such topics as agriculture, education, natural environment and resources, public health, public safety and crime, and science and technology.
This round of Eurobarometer surveys covers the following special topics: (1) the economic crisis, (2) volunteer work, (3) the environment, (4) interests and access to audiovisuals, and (5) helplines for social services. Questions in this survey pertain to the effect of the euro on the economic crisis, proper country and EU response to the economy's problems, appropriate response to food shortages and rising food prices, and European Parliament policy priorities. Respondents were asked for their opinions concerning volunteering and how often they volunteered, the importance of environmental protection, environmental issues that worried them and the best way to address these issues, and personal efforts to protect the environment. Other questions address the type, source and frequency of audiovisual content consumed. Lastly, respondents were queried on knowledge and opinions of telephone hotlines and helplines for services of social value.
Demographic and other background information collected includes age, gender, nationality, marital status and parental relations, left-right political self-placement, occupation, age when stopped full-time education, household composition, ownership of a fixed or a mobile telephone and other durable goods, difficulties in paying bills, level in society, and Internet use. In addition, country-specific data includes type and size of locality, region of residence, and language of interview (select countries).
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Eurobarometer 76.4: The Future of Europe, Awareness of European Home Affairs, and E-Communication in the Household, December 2011 (ICPSR 34732)
Released/updated on: 2015-02-24
Geographic coverage: Cyprus, Portugal, Global, Malta, Greece, Netherlands, Sweden, Great Britain, Austria, Latvia, Luxembourg, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania, Hungary, Europe, United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Germany, Estonia
Time period: 2011-12-03--2011-12-18
The Eurobarometer series is a unique cross-national and cross-temporal survey program conducted on behalf of the European Commission. These surveys regularly monitor public opinion in the European Union (EU) member countries and consist of standard modules and special topic modules. The standard modules address attitudes towards European unification, institutions and policies, measurements for general sociopolitical orientations, as well as respondent and household demographics. The special topic modules address such topics as agriculture, education, natural environment and resources, public health, public safety and crime, and science and technology.
This round of Eurobarometer surveys covers the standard modules and the following special topics: (1) The Future of Europe, (2) Awareness of Home Affairs, and (3) E-Communications in the Household. Questions pertain to opinions about EU objectives and policy towards social and economic policy and respondents' awareness of social, economic, and political issues in the EU and its member countries. Other questions pertain to the availability, use, and problems with e-communication tools such as telephones and the internet.
Demographic and other background information collected includes age, gender, nationality, marital status, occupation, age when stopped full-time education, household composition, ownership of a fixed or mobile telephone and other durable goods, difficulties paying bills, level within society (self-placed), and Internet use. In addition, country-specific data includes type and size of locality and size of locality, region of residence, and language of interview.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Eurobarometer 81.3: The Environment and the European Area of Skills and Qualifications, April-May 2014 (ICPSR 36242)
Released/updated on: 2017-07-07
Geographic coverage: Cyprus, Portugal, Malta, Greece, Netherlands, Sweden, Great Britain, Austria, Latvia, Luxembourg, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Northern Ireland, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, European Union, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Germany, Estonia
Time period: 2014-04-26--2014-05-11
The Eurobarometer series is a unique cross-national and cross-temporal survey program conducted on behalf of the European Commission. These surveys regularly monitor public opinion in the European Union (EU) member countries and consist of standard modules and special topic modules. The standard modules address attitudes towards European unification, institutions and policies, measurements for general socio-political orientations, as well as respondent and household demographics. The special topic modules address such topics as agriculture, education, natural environment and resources, public health, public safety and crime, and science and technology.
Eurobarometer 81.3 covered the following special topics: (1) Attitudes of European Citizens Towards the Environment and (2) Skills and Qualifications in the EU. Respondents' opinions were collected regarding their concern about environmental issues such as protection of natural resources, biodiversity, and pollution; their level of knowledge of these issues; and if they trusted various agencies such as the local government, trade unions, or consumer associations to provide reliable information about environmental issues. Respondents were also questioned about how environmental, social, and economic factors affected their quality of life, which group or groups were most responsible for addressing environmental issues, and which solutions they felt would have the strongest impact. Additional questions were asked regarding which skills were most important to achieve success in the workforce, where such skills could best be obtained, and the ease of accessing information on how to pursue educational opportunities to acquire these skills. Respondents were also asked about their socioeconomic position in society, whether their voice was being heard in the electoral system, and their opinions on if their home country and the European Union were generally going in the right or wrong direction.
Demographic and other background information collected includes age, gender, nationality, marital status, occupation, age when stopped full-time education, household composition, difficulties in paying bills, self-assessed level in society, self-assessed social class, and Internet use. In addition, country-specific data includes type and size of locality, region of residence, and language of interview (select countries).
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Eurobarometer 82.1: Passenger Rights and Development Aid, September 2014 (ICPSR 36661)
Released/updated on: 2017-02-23
Geographic coverage: Cyprus, Portugal, Malta, Greece, Netherlands, Sweden, Great Britain, Austria, Latvia, Luxembourg, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, France, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Northern Ireland, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, European Union, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Germany, Estonia
Time period: 2014-09-13--2014-09-22
The Eurobarometer series is a unique cross-national and cross-temporal survey program conducted on behalf of the European Commission. These surveys regularly monitor public opinion in the European Union (EU) member countries and consist of standard modules and special topic modules. The standard modules address attitudes towards European unification, institutions and policies, measurements for general socio-political orientations, as well as respondent and household demographics. The special topic modules address such topics as agriculture, education, natural environment and resources, public health, public safety and crime, and science and technology.
This round of Eurobarometer surveys covers the following special topics: (1)Passenger Rights and (2)Development Aid. Respondent's opinions were collected regarding their rights and experiences as passengers on board planes, rail, ship, and other public transportation means. They were asked about disruptions, delays, transportation mode, noise and assistance. Their opinions were also collected about EU development aid, poverty, and living conditions. They were asked where development aid should be used, for example, to improve health, education, water and sanitation, or a number of other areas. They were also asked where they obtained their information about development.
Demographic and other background information collected includes age, gender, nationality, marital status, left-right political self-placement, occupation, age when stopped full-time education, household composition, ownership of a fixed or mobile telephone and other durable goods, difficulties in paying bills, self-assessed level in society, self-assessed social class, and Internet use. In addition, country-specific data includes type and size of locality, region of residence, and language of interview (select countries).
Curated
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Consensus Forecasts (ICPSR 22683)
Released/updated on: 2008-06-10
Geographic coverage: United States
In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme values. This paper uses individual forecaster data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to mimic the FOMC's method for creating their central tendency. The authors show that the midpoint of the central tendency of the SPF is a reliable measure of the consensus, suggesting that the FOMC reporting method is also a reliable measure of consensus. For the dates when both are available, the authors also compare the relative forecast accuracy of the FOMC and SPF consensus forecasts for output growth and inflation. Overall, the differences in forecast accuracy are too small to be statistically significant.
Curated
The Federal Response to Home Mortgage Distress: Lessons from the Great Depression (ICPSR 22682)
Released/updated on: 2008-06-09
Geographic coverage: United States
This article examines the federal response to mortgage distress during the Great Depression. It documents features of the housing cycle of the 1920s and early 1930s, focusing on the growth of mortgage debt and the subsequent sharp increase in mortgage defaults and foreclosures during the Depression. It summarizes the major federal initiatives to reduce foreclosures and reform mortgage market practices, focusing especially on the activities of the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC), which acquired and refinanced one million delinquent mortgages between 1933 and 1936. Because the conditions under which the HOLC operated were unusual, the author cautions against drawing strong policy lessons from the HOLC's activities. Nonetheless, similarities between the Great Depression and the recent episode suggest that a review of the historical experience can provide insights about alternative policies to relieve mortgage distress.
Curated
Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers? (ICPSR 1242)
Released/updated on: 2001-06-12
Geographic coverage: United States
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor rule, the authors show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.
Curated
Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity, and Country Growth: An Overview (ICPSR 25081)
Released/updated on: 2009-03-11
Geographic coverage: Hungary, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Bermuda Islands, Switzerland, Spain, Canada, Netherlands, Sweden, Czech Republic, Norway, Luxembourg, Finland, Mexico, France, Germany, Estonia
The authors review the empirical literature that studies the relationship between foreign direct investment, productivity, and growth using aggregate data, and focus on two questions: (1) is there evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and national growth? and (2) does the output of the "multinational sectors" exhibit higher labor productivity? The authors also briefly discuss how the microeconomic evidence and a number of aggregation and composition problems might help explain the ambiguous results in this literature.
Curated
Global E-Commerce Ten Nation Survey Data: United States, Mexico, Brazil, Denmark, France, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, China, and Japan, 2001-2002 (ICPSR 29861)
Released/updated on: 2011-08-17
Geographic coverage: Singapore, United States, Japan, Taiwan, China (Peoples Republic), Brazil, Denmark, Mexico, France, Germany, Global
Time period: 2002-02-18--2002-04-05
This study examined the electronic commerce of establishments across ten nations. Topics included a respondent selection/filter section containing questions about which industry represents their site's primary business, whether their organization had one or more than one establishment, the number of employees at the establishment, and whether they used the Internet to buy, sell, or support products or services. A second topic was the globalization of the firm and the globalization of markets and sourcing. For this section, respondents were asked whether any of their establishments or their headquarters were located outside of their country. In addition, respondents identified the total number of employees in all branches of the organization, the percentage of total sales and total procurement spending from outside of their country, and how much they were affected by competitors in the local area, or inside or outside the country. A third topic was the use of E-commerce technologies. This section queried respondents about their use of computers and email, whether they had a publicly accessible Web site, and if they utilized an intra-net, extra-net, electronic data interchange (EDI), electronic funds transfer (EFT), and a call center. A fourth topic was uses of the Internet, drivers for Internet use, barriers/difficulties to doing business on the Internet, and impacts of doing business online. For this section, respondents were asked about the purpose of using the Internet, whether they were familiar with an Internet marketplace, their participation as a buyer, a seller, or both in an Internet- based trading community, and whether they provide or plan to provide content and services for mobile customer access. Additionally, respondents were asked to rate the significance certain factors and obstacles had on doing business online, and the degree to which they experienced certain impacts since they began doing business online. A fifth topic was online sales, online services, and online procurement. In this section, respondents were asked if their online sales were to businesses, consumers, or both, to provide the percentage of total customer sales and total business to business that were conducted online. In addition, the survey inquired as to whether their Web site supported certain services, whether consumers, businesses, or both utilized these services, and what percentage of their total services were conducted online. Additionally, respondents were asked as to what percentage of the money they spent on certain items, such as direct goods for production, goods for resale, and supplies and equipment for doing business, are ordered online. The final topic was enterprise application strategy and spending. In this section, respondents were asked to identify the extent their Internet applications are electronically integrated with their internal databases and information systems, and their databases and information systems are electronically integrated with those of their suppliers and business customers. Lastly, respondents were asked to list their total revenue for both the calendar and fiscal year 2001, total IS operating budget in 2001, and the number of IT professionals working at their establishment.
Curated
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM): Expert Questionnaire Data, 1999-2003 (ICPSR 21862)
Released/updated on: 2009-06-26
Geographic coverage: Singapore, Hong Kong, United States, China (Peoples Republic), Scotland, Thailand, Portugal, Iceland, Global, Greece, Netherlands, South Korea, Sweden, Ireland, Brazil, Slovenia, France, Chile, Croatia, Argentina, Hungary, Japan, United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, Switzerland, India, Spain, New Zealand, Canada, Venezuela, Belgium, Norway, Taiwan, Finland, Denmark, South Africa, Italy, Mexico, Uganda, Israel, Australia, Germany
Time period: 1999-01-01--2003-01-01
The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) was designed to capture various aspects of firm creation and entrepreneurship across countries. The data have been collected over a number of years (1998-2003) and include responses from 4,685 experts in over 38 countries and three subnational regions. This study seeks to measure the national attributes considered critical for new firm births and small firm growth. The dataset is a harmonized file capturing the results from all of the surveys. The expert, or key informant, questionnaire was improved and adjusted each year to increase the reliability of multi-item indices and provide for the addition of new dimensions. For each version of the questionnaire, respondents completed 70-80 standardized items that were the basis for 12-15 multi-item indices. Respondents were initially asked a series of general questions pertaining to starting a business, such as whether they were currently trying to start a new business, whether they knew anyone who had started a new business, and whether they thought it was a good time to do so. Respondents were also asked about the process of starting up a new business; whether they had done anything to start a new business in the past 12 months; whether they would own all, part, or none of the new business; how many people would be involved with the new business; what sort of business they were starting; and what they would sell. In addition, respondents identified the total start-up costs, the various sources of the start-up money, and why they were involved in the start-up. Respondents then answered a set of questions to assess the national conditions influencing entrepreneurial activity in their own country. In this respect, respondents provided their opinions on business and entrepreneurial education, the integration of new technology in businesses, the availability of financial support through government policies and programs, the availability of subcontractors, yearly changes in the economic market, and the physical infrastructure in their country. Views were also elicited from respondents about their national cultures in regard to entrepreneurial efforts and opportunities, attitudes towards entrepreneurs in general, women entrepreneurs and the resources available to them, and citizens' knowledge and experience with new businesses. They also gave their views on the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) legislation and its enforcement in their respective countries. Respondents were then queried on the technological strengths of their country by ranking the top five sectors in which there has been development of the greatest number of technology-intensive start-up companies in the past ten years. Finally, respondents were asked the same general questions as those used in the GLOBAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP MONITOR (GEM): ADULT POPULATION SURVEY DATA SET, 1998-2003 (ICPSR 20320) in order to ascertain whether the opinions and behaviors of the current "expert" respondents differ from those of the general population. These questions included whether they were starting a new business, if there were opportunities for new businesses, funding sources for a new business, skills required to start a new business, shutting down a business, and whether a fear of failure was preventing the start of a new business. The dataset also contains variables that describe the respondent's gender, age, educational attainment, labor force status, the entrepreneurial areas in which they feel they have strong expertise, and the month and year the survey was conducted.
Curated
Height of Students of the Ecole Polytechnique, 1794-1887 (ICPSR 6800)
Released/updated on: 1998-02-18
Geographic coverage: France, Global
Time period: 1794-01-01--1887-01-01
This data collection tracks the height of students at the Ecole Polytechnique in Palaiseau, France, during the French Revolution and the period following economic growth. Information includes month of enrollment, year of enrollment, month of birth, year of birth, province, town, height measurement in centimeters, head of family, and occupation of parent.
Curated
High-Tech Investment Boom and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Accounting for Quality (ICPSR 1263)
Released/updated on: 2002-08-13
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1990-01-01--1999-01-01
The rapid pace of economic growth in the 1990s was associated with an increasingly prominent role for investment, particularly for information processing and communications technologies. Given the evident pace of technological advancement in these sectors, official economic statistics have been constructed to take careful account of improvements in the quality of these high-tech capital goods. In this article, the author examines the possibility that this selective accounting for quality improvement has distorted the true importance of high-tech investment in recent economic growth trends. After constructing alternative measures of investment spending that are adjusted for quality change that may go unmeasured in the official data, he finds that the increasing importance of high-tech investment revealed in the official data is quite robust: The prominent role of investment spending during the 1990s, particularly for high-tech capital goods, does in fact represent a significant departure from past trends in the composition of United States economic growth.
Curated
How Well Does Employment Predict Output? (ICPSR 20963)
Released/updated on: 2007-09-17
Geographic coverage: United States
Economists, policymakers, and financial market analysts typically pay close attention to aggregate employment trends because employment is thought to be an important indicator of macroeconomic conditions. One difficulty is that there are two separate surveys of employment, which can diverge widely from one another, as the previous and current economic expansions demonstrate. The conventional wisdom is that, for assessing economic conditions, the survey that counts the number of jobs (establishment survey) is preferable to the survey that counts the number of people employed (household survey). However, results from a one-quarter-ahead forecasting exercise presented in this paper suggest that analysts should question whether employment is a useful indicator for predicting output growth.
Curated
Human Capital Growth in a Cross Section of U.S. Metropolitan Areas (ICPSR 1329)
Released/updated on: 2006-10-02
Geographic coverage: United States
Human capital growth, defined as the change in the fraction of a metropolitan area's labor force with a bachelor's degree, is typically viewed as generating a number of desirable outcomes, including economic growth. Yet, in spite of its importance, few empirical studies have explored why some economies accumulate more human capital than others. This paper attempts to do so using a sample of more than 200 metropolitan areas in the United States over the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. The results reveal two consistently significant correlates of human capital growth: population and the existing stock of college-educated labor. Given that population growth and human capital growth are both positively associated with education, these results suggest that the geographic distributions of population and human capital should have become more concentrated in recent decades. That is, larger, more-educated metropolitan areas should have exhibited the fastest rates of increase in both population and education and thus 'pulled away' from smaller, less-education metropolitan areas. The evidence largely supports this conclusion.
Curated
Investment-Specific Technology Growth: Concepts and Recent Estimates (ICPSR 1273)
Released/updated on: 2003-04-18
Geographic coverage: United States
The strength of United States productivity growth in recent years has been attributed to technological improvements that are, in some sense, embodied in new types of capital equipment. However, traditional growth theory and growth accounting techniques -- which emphasize the role of disembodied, neutral technological progress -- are deficient in explaining this phenomenon. In this article, the author outlines a model of investment-specific technological change that has become popular for describing the notion of capital-embodied growth and summarizes some recent estimates of the importance of this type of technological progress for assessing United States productivity trends.
Curated
Investors and Members of Parliament in England, 1575-1630 (ICPSR 55)
Released/updated on: 2011-08-17
Geographic coverage: Global
Time period: 1575-01-01--1630-01-01
This data collection contains individual-level biographical information for British members of Parliament and social and economic data pertaining to British investment and economic expansion in the period 1575-1630. The data provide information on name, social class, and date of knighthood for each member of British Parliament for the period. Also included are dates of the thirteen sessions of Parliament, and the names of the trading companies and company directors or governors.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Korean General Social Survey (KGSS), 2006 (ICPSR 34662)
Released/updated on: 2013-12-05
Geographic coverage: South Korea, Asia, Global
Time period: 2006-06-01--2006-08-01
The Korean General Social Survey (KGSS) is the South Korean version of the General Social Survey (GSS), closely replicating the original GSS of the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. Each round of the KGSS typically includes the topical module surveys of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), and/or the East Asian Social Survey (EASS), an international survey network of four GSS-type surveys from countries in East Asia (including China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea). Respondents were asked about their trust and confidence in people and institutions, reunification with North Korea, economic issues, their everyday life and household, family, government performance, and public officials. Additional questions were asked regarding family financial support, household roles, and marriage. Demographic information includes age, sex, education level, household income, employment status, religious preference, political party affiliation, and political philosophy.
Curated
Macroeconomic News and Real Interest Rates (ICPSR 1330)
Released/updated on: 2006-10-02
Geographic coverage: United States
Economic news affects the perceptions of investors, forecasters, and policymakers about the strength or weakness of the economy. These expectations are updated on the basis of regularly occurring surprises in macroeconomic announcement data. The response of asset prices to positive or negative announcement surprises has been a regular feature of the literature for more than 20 years. In this vein, the authors evaluate the responses of the yield of 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed securities to nearly three dozen macroeconomic announcements. They find that the real long-term rate of interest responds positively to surprises in a handful of key macroeconomic indicators, including labor productivity growth. Also, the authors find no support for the proposition that the Federal Reserve has information about its actions or the state of the real economy that is not in the public domain and, hence, not already priced in the real long-term interest rate.
Curated
More Money: Understanding Recent Changes in the Monetary Base (ICPSR 25061)
Released/updated on: 2009-03-11
Geographic coverage: United States
The financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007 took a turn for the worse in September 2008. Until then, Federal Reserve actions taken to improve the functioning financial markets did not affect the monetary base. The unusual lending and purchase of private debt was offset by the sale of United States Treasury securities so that the total size of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve remained relatively unchanged. In September, however, the Federal Reserve stopped selling securities as it made massive purchases of private debt and issued hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term loans. The result was a doubling of the size of the monetary base in the final four months of 2008. This article discusses the details of the programs that the Federal Reserve has initiated since the crisis began, shows which programs have grown as the monetary base grew, and discusses some factors that will determine whether this rapid increase in the monetary base will lead to rapid inflation.
Curated
New Economy--New Policy Rules? (ICPSR 1244)
Released/updated on: 2001-10-31
Geographic coverage: United States
The United States economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. To understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies, the authors begin with a standard economy in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. They augment this model with regime switching in productivity and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. The authors find that, in the altered environment, a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor rule. They use this result to comment on the "new economy" events of the 1990s and the "stagflation" events of the 1970s from the perspective of their model.
Curated
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise (ICPSR 23220)
Released/updated on: 2008-09-05
Geographic coverage: United States
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.
Curated
Population Redistribution and Economic Growth in the United States: Population Data, 1870-1960 (ICPSR 7753)
Released/updated on: 2011-08-31
Geographic coverage: North Carolina, Indiana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Kentucky, California, Kansas, Florida, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Illinois, Texas, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia, Maryland, Idaho, Oregon, Vermont, United States, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Maine, Alabama, Arkansas, Washington, South Carolina, Nebraska, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Colorado, Missouri, Alaska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nevada, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Jersey, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Ohio
Time period: 1870-01-01--1960-01-01
Detailed demographic characteristics of the population of the United States from 1870 to 1960 are contained in this data collection. Included are state-level estimates of the nation's inhabitants by sex, race, nativity and age, as well as intercensal migration calculated by age, race, and sex. The basic information recorded in this collection was obtained from the decennial censuses of the United States or estimated by the principal investigators from material collected by the decennial censuses. The collection is comprised of thirteen separate data files. Each contains information for every state in the nation. All parts have a rectangular file structure with one record per case, with the number of cases ranging from 50 to 2,891, and the record length from 203 to 2,930 per part. Standard geographic identifying codes used in all of the files permit the combination of two or more of the files as research interests dictate.
Curated
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in the United States, China, India, Australia, and South Korea, 2006 (ICPSR 4650)
Released/updated on: 2008-07-18
Geographic coverage: South Korea, United States, China (Peoples Republic), Australia, Global, India
The Chicago Council undertakes a large-scale public opinion study every two years that compares American and international public opinion on a wide range of important international issues. A significant part of each biennial survey is additionally dedicated to examining a timely theme. The theme of the 2006 survey was, "The Rise of China and India."
This data collection presents a unique comparison of international attitudes on how the emergence of China and India as economic dynamos and claimants to great power status will affect the global economy, international security, and politics. Moreover, this study sought to assess American public opinion (Part 1, Public Opinion Survey, United States) on a variety of challenges facing the United States today including international terrorism, nuclear proliferation, conflict in the Middle East, the rising economic and political power of Asia, economic competition from abroad, and threats to energy supplies and the environment. This data collection also provides an understanding of how the Chinese (Part 2, Public Opinion Survey, China) and Indian (Part 3, Public Opinion Survey, India) publics view their nations' international challenges and opportunities and their respective roles as emerging great powers. Parallel surveys were also conducted in Australia (Part 4, Public Opinion Survey, Australia) in conjunction with the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and in South Korea (Part 5, Public Opinion Survey, South Korea) in conjunction with the East Asia Institute.
Demographic variables include race, age, gender, religious affiliation, highest level of education, and political identification.
Self-published
Railways, Growth, and Industrialization in a Developing German Economy, 1829-1910 (ICPSR 174461)
Released/updated on: 2022-07-06
Time period: 1829-01-01--1910-01-01
This is the replication package for the following paper: Railways, Growth, and Industrialization in a Developing German Economy, 1829-1910. The paper studies the average and heterogeneous effects of railway access on parish-level population, income, and industrialization in Württemberg during the Industrial Revolution. The package contains data and code replicating the paper's tables and figures.
Curated
Real Output in Switzerland: New Estimates for 1913-1947 (ICPSR 1223)
Released/updated on: 2000-08-28
Geographic coverage: Switzerland, Global
Time period: 1913-01-01--1947-01-01
In this article, the authors provide an estimate of the real gross domestic product of Switzerland between 1914 and 1947. The estimate is obtained from published data on three other measures of Swiss economic activity during this period: net national product, industrial production, and the transport volume of Swiss railroads. These underlying series closely represent the economic growth of Switzerland, but they also seem unreasonably volatile as proxy measures of total production, and hence are filtered by moving averages. Although such smoothing might reduce the accuracy of the estimates, comparisons to United States data suggest any such loss is small.
Self-published
Reconstruction Aid, Public Infrastructure, and Economic Development (ICPSR 167821)
Released/updated on: 2022-04-15
Geographic coverage: Italy
Time period: 1948-01-01--2001-01-01
The Marshall Plan (1948–1952) was the largest aid transfer in history. This paper estimates its effects on Italy’s postwar economic development. It exploits differences between Italian provinces in the value of reconstruction grants they received. Provinces that could modernize more their infrastructure experienced higher increases in agricultural production, especially for perishable crops. In the same provinces, we observe larger investments in labor-saving machines, the entry of more firms into the industrial sector, and a larger expansion of the industrial and service workforce.
Self-published
Replication: Economic Growth and the Development of Real Wages: Swedish Construction Workers’ Wages in Comparative Perspective, 1831–1900 (ICPSR 117441)
Released/updated on: 2020-01-30
Geographic coverage: Sweden
Time period: 1831-01-01--1900-01-01
Replication package for "Economic Growth and the Development of Real Wages: Swedish Construction Workers’ Wages in Comparative Perspective, 1831–1900" by Johan Ericsson and Jakob Molinder. See the "readme.txt" file for details about the attached files. Program and data files are in Stata format.
Self-published
“Shining Light on a Statistical Dark Age: Postal Activity in Antebellum America.” (ICPSR 304323)
Released/updated on: 2026-04-21
Geographic coverage: United States
Time period: 1790-01-01--1860-01-01
The project examines the origins of modern economic growth in the antebellum United States.
It compiles statistics on postal activity available on an annual or biennial basis at the county level
to shed light of the expansion of economic activity. It also extends Easterlin state-level income estimates
for 1840 to the county level.
Curated
Simple Crosstabs
Soul of the Community [in 26 Knight Foundation Communities in the United States], 2008-2010 (ICPSR 35532)
Released/updated on: 2016-05-26
Geographic coverage: North Carolina, Akron, Biloxi, Detroit, Charlotte, Duluth, Indiana, Aberdeen, Columbus (Georgia), South Carolina, San Jose, Lexington, Tallahassee, Wichita, Myrtle Beach, Columbia (South Carolina), Colorado, State College, Bradenton, North Dakota, Gary, Palm Beach, Macon, Milledgeville, Boulder, Kentucky, St. Paul, South Dakota, Minnesota, California, Kansas, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Miami, Mississippi, Long Beach, Grand Forks, Ohio, Georgia, Fort Wayne, Philadelphia
Time period: 2003-02-01--2013-04-27, 2004-02-17--2014-04-26, 2005-05-27--2015-08-31
Soul of the Community was a three-year study conducted by Gallup, Inc. of the 26 Knight Foundation communities across the United States to determine the factors that attach residents to their communities and the role of community attachment in an area's economic growth and well-being. The study focused on the emotional side of the connection between residents and their communities. A random sample of at least 400 residents, aged 18 years and older, was interviewed in each community each year. In each year, oversampling obtained additional interviews in selected areas. The 2010 study also included 200 interviews among residents aged 18 to 34 in eight resident communities. Once a household within the identified area was reached, Gallup randomly selected one adult within the sampled household. Telephone interviews lasted 15 minutes (approximately 18 minutes in 2009). In 2010, the survey was available in English and Spanish, and both landlines and cell phones were called. Data include demographics, geographic information, ratings of the community, and information about the economy and work, personal wellness, and community involvement.
Curated
Three Funerals and a Wedding (ICPSR 24543)
Released/updated on: 2009-01-26
Geographic coverage: United States
This article is a modified and updated version of a speech presented at the Regional Economic Summit, Evansville, Indiana, November 20, 2008.
Curated
Unemployment and Vacancies in Steady State Growth (ICPSR 1061)
Released/updated on: 1996-01-03
Geographic coverage: United States
These data and/or computer programs are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the INVESTIGATOR(S) if further information is desired.
Curated
United States Official Forecasts of Group-of-Seven Economic Performance, 1976-1990 (ICPSR 1148)
Released/updated on: 1998-08-18
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts evaluated in this article are the last predictions of both economic growth and inflation for the next year made during the previous year. The Blue Chip and DRI forecasts for the United States and Canadian economies selected for comparison to the Administration forecasts were those published during the same months as the Administration forecasts. The DRI forecasts begin with those for 1976 and run through 1990. A complete set of DRI forecasts for all of the G-7 countries is available for each year since 1983. The OECD projections are those published in December for the next year, beginning with the outlook for 1976. The Federal Reserve forecasts are those associated with the last Greenbook issued in a given calendar year, usually December.
Curated
United States Trade Deficit and the "New Economy" (ICPSR 1213)
Released/updated on: 2000-01-18
Geographic coverage: United States
Amidst the overall strength and longevity of the United States economic expansion of the 1990s, a growing current account deficit is one indicator that often is viewed with concern. In this article, the author discusses some basic economic principles about current accounts and how they relate to the United States experience during the 1990s. He suggests that recent deficits should not be thought of as a source of weakness in an otherwise vigorous economy, but rather, that they are reflective of the same forces underlying recent economic strength.
Curated
Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries (ICPSR 1328)
Released/updated on: 2006-10-02
Geographic coverage: United States
Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics--the expected output loss associated with a recession--helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.