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Self-published

Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression (ICPSR 301321)

Released/updated on: 2026-04-21

Geographic coverage: United Kingdom

Time period: 1930-01-01--1931-12-31

Data and code for "Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression," JEH 2026.

This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression.

Curated

Case Study of a Currency Crisis: The Russian Default of 1998 (ICPSR 1271)

Released/updated on: 2003-04-18

Geographic coverage: Global, Russia

This paper uses a currency crisis framework to analyze the currency devaluation and debt default of post-Soviet Russia in August 1998. The authors show that even though the Russian economy recorded positive growth immediately preceding the default, the atmosphere was reflective of an impending crisis. The authors then consider the symptoms of a currency crisis -- specifically public and private debt responsibilities, devaluation expectations, and contractionary monetary policy -- and show that they were present in Russia at that time. Three generations of currency crisis models are reviewed, followed by speculation that the Russian default was a product not only of fiscal deficits but also of a fragile financial system and contractionary monetary policy. The authors address the possibility that the usual prescription for a currency crisis, that is, increasing interest rates, may have accelerated the default and that a case-by-case prescription may afford a better solution than a blanket policy of increasing interest rates in the face of devaluation.

Curated

Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for Emerging Markets (ICPSR 1246)

Released/updated on: 2001-10-31

Geographic coverage: Asia, Thailand, Global

To the surprise of many market watchers, Thailand's exchange rate peg to the dollar collapsed in July 1997, leading to similar rounds of currency devaluations in other East Asian countries. This study seeks to determine whether there were identifiable contrasts in implementation between Thailand's peg and a perennially successful peg -- Austria's peg to the Deutsche mark -- that would have hinted at problems for Thailand prior to July 1997. The comparison suggests that Thailand was not sufficiently vigilant about keeping its inflation rate low in the early 1990s. By 1995, Thailand faced a situation in which a tight monetary policy involving high domestic interest rates would not always have created disinflationary pressure, as high interest rates also tended to attract greater capital inflow to Thailand. In this environment, Thailand's monetary policy became erratic and failed to maintain the exchange rate peg.

Curated

Giant Sucking Sound: Did NAFTA Devour the Mexican Peso? (ICPSR 1162)

Released/updated on: 1998-08-27

Geographic coverage: Mexico, Global

Time period: 1994-01-01--1994-12-31

The data examine the relationship between the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Mexican peso crisis of December 1994.