Presidential Nominating Contests
Democratic Contests
Clinton was clearly the leading Democratic presidential candidate at the start of 2016. She was by far the best known of the candidates. She had endorsements from a majority of the Democratic U.S. senators and representatives, along with a dozen Democratic governors (Bycoffe 2016). She had amassed a sizable campaign finance chest of close to $200 million by the end of 2015, equal to what Obama had raised in 2011 for his reelection bid, plus she had sizable financial support from outside groups (Narayanswamy, Cameron, and Gold 2016). For these reasons, she had a solid lead of over 20 points in the polls (FiveThirtyEight 2016). However, during the fall of 2015, Sanders emerged as a serious challenger, to the surprise of many observers.
Despite his position as a U.S. senator, Sanders was viewed as an outsider. He had little support from the party elites. He called himself a democratic socialist, and although he caucused with the Democrats in the Senate, he had run for election in Vermont as an independent. His campaign stressed a strong economic message: government policies were tilted toward the wealthy, with most Americans failing to benefit from the nation’s prosperity. He argued that the trade policies had cost the country millions of manufacturing jobs, reducing the economic opportunities for many Americans. Sanders wanted strong government policies to reduce income inequalities and to break up what he saw as a plutocracy that was a danger to American democracy. Two of the policies that he repeatedly emphasized were a single-payer health care system that would cover everyone and a $15 an hour minimum wage. Overall, he favored a very liberal set of economic policies, and although some Democratic voters saw Sanders as too far to the left, his ideas resonated with many, especially younger voters. The enthusiasm of his supporters allowed him to eventually raise over $200 million in campaign funds, with the vast bulk of it coming from small donations (Narayanswamy, Cameron, and Gold 2016).
Clinton was without doubt the insider candidate, and she was more moderate than Sanders in her policy positions. However, she moved to the left in response to the economic message of the Sanders campaign, supporting a $12 an hour minimum wage, for example. Sanders appeal rested on more than his economic message, as Clinton was hurt by views of her character, especially regarding her integrity. Polls showed that Democratic voters regarded Sanders as more trustworthy than Clinton (Associated Press 2016). Some of the questions about Clintons honesty went back to when she and Bill Clinton were in the White House in the 1990s. Other questions emerged more recently. The most serious question regarded her use of a private email server to handle her official communication as Secretary of State, an action that Republicans pummeled her on. Republicans also raised questions about her actions and statements regarding the 2012 attack on the American diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, an incident that was the subject of congressional hearings. After resigning as Secretary of State in early 2013, Clinton received large speaker fees from several business and financial organizations, leading to charges that she was too beholden to these interests to reform the system (Ceaser, Busch, and Pitney 2017, 43-52).
Support for Sanders was evident in the first two nomination contests, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. He narrowly lost the Iowa caucuses to Clinton, then decisively won the New Hampshire primary, although this victory was not that surprising, given that he was from a neighboring state. As the primary contests moved to states with a larger minority population, Clinton did better. She won in Nevada and South Carolina, then did quite well on March 1, Super Tuesday: she carried seven of the eleven states that had nomination contests that day, winning a number of states by a wide margin. Those victories gave Clinton a substantial lead in delegates, one that would be difficult for Sanders to overcome. Sanders continued his campaign, but Clinton won the majority of the remaining primaries and caucuses, including all of the ones in large states. Clinton also was supported by over 90 percent of the super delegates, which expanded her delegate lead over Sanders. Sanders, however, only formally conceded the nomination to Clinton in a speech he delivered at the Democratic National Convention.
Republican Contests
A crowded field of candidates sought the Republican nomination, but most of them were eliminated early. Five dropped out before the Iowa caucuses took place on February 1, 2016. After the New Hampshire primary was held on February 9, five more retired from the race. By early March, there were just four active candidates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. The three challengers to Trump hoped that as the field narrowed, Republican support would unite behind one of them as the best alternative to Trump. That did not happen. Trump continued to win primaries. By early May, it was clear that Trump was almost certain to secure enough convention delegates for the nomination.
During the several months before the first nomination contests, the period referred to as the invisible primary, Trump dominated the news. He combined his existing celebrity status with a variety of bombastic and controversial statements that inevitably were covered in the nightly news. Rather than spend large sums of money on paid political ads, Trump held campaign rallies and events, where he engaged in behavior that was sure to attract media attention. He also issued a constant stream of tweets, which were widely reported in the media. At his rallies and in his tweets, Trump frequently insulted and mocked his Republican opponents. Throughout his nomination campaign, he made bold promises, such as saying that he would build a wall along the Mexican border and make Mexico pay for it, which was part of a broader criticism of existing immigration policies. He charged that those in power had allowed foreign countries to take advantage of the United States, especially regarding trade deals, which he claimed had ruined the American economy. His rash statements and harsh criticisms fit his image as a bold outsider who could clean up the mess in Washington (Costa 2017).
For the most part, Trump’s Republican opponents refrained from attacking him back. Each thought that the best strategy would be to let others engage in the attacks, hoping to then win the votes of the Trump supporters after his campaign faded, which they thought that it would. Among his four strongest opponents, Cruz was the one who also could be seen as an outsider, even though he was a U.S. senator. Cruz was the most conservative of the top Republican contenders, particularly on social issues, which made him popular among religious conservatives. Kasich was the most moderate of the top contenders, and he also was the most experienced, having served in Congress for many years before becoming governor of Ohio. Rubio was between Kasich and Cruz in ideology and in insider/outsider status, and many observers thought that he would be the candidate who could unite the various factions of the party together, but his campaign failed to catch fire, and he even lost the primary in his home state, Florida, to Trump.
Cruz narrowly won the first event, the Iowa caucuses, with just 28 percent of the vote; Trump and Rubio were close behind. In the next contest, the New Hampshire primary, Trump did much better, considerably exceeding expectations. Trump won 35 percent of the vote, Kasich was a distant second with 17 percent, and Cruz finished third with just 12 percent. Trump followed that victory with another in South Carolina, where he captured almost one-third of the vote, with Rubio well behind at 22 percent and Cruz slightly behind that. On March 1, twelve states held primaries or caucuses in what was termed Super Tuesday. Trump won seven of those contests, keeping him as the clear leader in the nomination race. However, in no contest did Trump win 50 percent of the vote, leading his opponents to hope that there was a majority of Republican voters were opposed to Trump and that Trump could be defeated if that support would coalesce behind a single candidate. It never did. Trump finished with some strong victories and secured a majority of the convention delegates.
Results of the caucuses and primary elections can be found at: