Study sparks questions about effectiveness of direct cash aid programs

The New York Times recently reported on the surprising findings released in this working paper by Noble et al., based on data collected in their study, Baby’s First Years (BFY). An ongoing randomized control trial, BFY recruited 1,000 low-income mothers with newborns in 2018-2019. In the trial, half of the mothers have been receiving unconditional cash transfers of $333 each month ($4,000 each year), and the other half have been receiving $20 each month ($240 each year), which will continue through the first 52 months of the children’s lives. The researchers conducted follow-up surveys with the mothers when the children were ages one, two, three, and four, and will do so again at ages six and eight. The trial was meant to study whether poverty reduction affects children’s early cognitive and socio-emotional health, and brain development. Although findings at an earlier stage of the trial seemed to show children benefiting from being in the high-cash group, Noble et al. found that after four years of the trial, there seemed to be no statistically significant impacts of the higher cash transfers on the children, in the seven areas the researchers assessed. In the working paper, Noble et al. discussed several possible explanations for their findings, including that early cash support may not affect children’s outcomes until later in their lives. The Times article interviewed some of the study investigators about the findings, as well as some critics of unconditional cash aid. BFY data, collected during the baseline survey through the age four follow-up, are currently available from DSDR.

July 31, 2025