This longitudinal study of juvenile offenders
traces the criminal histories of a sample of juveniles, including
those who were "dropouts" (juvenile offenders who did not go on to
become adult criminal offenders) and those who continued to be
arrested, ranging from those with only one subsequent arrest to
"persisters" (juveniles who did become career criminal
offenders). Much of the research attempting to examine the links
between chronic adult offenders and the frequency and severity of
juvenile criminality has been retrospective in nature. In such
studies, criminal history and other background factors about subjects
who have already committed crimes are examined. Predictive factors are
assessed by looking backward. However, this type of research provides
no information on those juvenile offenders who did not go on to be
severe, repeat adult offenders. To predict future criminality
correctly, both types of offenders ("dropouts" as well as
"persisters") must be part of the analysis. To address this concern,
the investigators conducted a prospective study, providing
longitudinal arrest data on a sample of juvenile offenders. The data
address the following questions: (1) Are serious juvenile offenders
more likely than nonserious juvenile offenders to become adult
offenders? (2) Are offenders who begin at a younger age more likely to
have more serious criminal careers than those who begin when they are
older? (3) As a criminal career progresses, will the offender become
more skilled at one type of offense and commit that type of crime more
frequently, while decreasing the frequency of other types of crimes?
(4) As a criminal career progresses, will the offender commit
progressively more serious offenses? (5) How well can high-rate
offenders be predicted?
This study employed a longitudinal prospective
design. The investigators randomly selected 14- and 15-year-olds who
were referred by police to Probation Intake in the New York City
Family Court as a result of an arrest on delinquency charges. This
group was followed until September 1983 (up to six years of
follow-up). All subsequent arrests, dispositions, and incarcerations,
both juvenile and adult, were recorded during this portion of data
collection. A great deal of attention was focused on gathering data
from various sources and organizing these data into a useful database.
The investigators collected a large portion of data from the Family
Court Disposition Study (FCDS). The investigators used the FCDS as the
pool from which the sample was selected and as a source of data about
juveniles' prior criminal history and current court case. In addition,
the researchers extracted data about subsequent juvenile contacts with
the criminal justice system from the Probation Department files and
the Police Department arrest files. The investigators also obtained
data regarding the sample's later contacts with the criminal justice
system from three existing official record systems, the New York City
Criminal Justice Agency (CJA), the New York State Division of Criminal
Justice Services (DCJS), and the Office of Court Administration
(OCA).
The sample was originally drawn by the Vera Institute of
Justice's Family Court Disposition Study (FCDS). The FCDS randomly
sampled one of ten juvenile delinquency cases appearing at Probation
Intake in the New York City Family Court during a one-year period, and
one in six of all status offense cases. The present study selected a
subsample from the FCDS study based on two selection criteria. First,
only those offenders brought to Probation Intake for delinquency
offenses were included, and not those referred to court for status
offenses. Second, in order to maximize the length of time that the
offenders could be followed as adults, only the oldest juveniles were
selected from the FCDS. The final sample for the present study
includes juveniles at ages 14 and 15 who had been brought to Probation
Intake in the New York City Family Court from April 1, 1977, to March
31, 1978. The FCDS subsample also constituted the sample for which up
to ten prior delinquency arrests and all subsequent juvenile and adult
arrests and incarcerations up to 1983 were collected.
Juveniles at ages 14 and 15 who had been referred by
police to Probation Intake in the New York City Family Court as a
result of arrest on delinquency charges.
Individuals.
(1) the Family Court Disposition Study (FCDS), which
gathered information from Probation Intake logbooks in the Family
Court, Probation Department files, and arrest reports from the Police
Department's Youth Records Unit, and (2) records of the New York City
Criminal Justice Agency (CJA), the New York State Division of Criminal
Justice Services (DCJS), and the Office of Court Administration (OCA)
Part 1 of this study contains data on a subsample
of 14- and 15-year-olds who were brought to Probation Intake for
delinquency offenses. Included in this file are variables such as
arrest charge categorized into type and severity, date of arrest for
the sample case, disposition and sentence of the sample case, sex and
race of the offender, highest school grade completed, persons with
whom the offender was residing, employment status of the household
members, and the welfare status of the household. Included in Part 2
is information on age at first arrest, total number of prior
delinquency arrests, and detailed information on up to ten prior
delinquencies, such as arrest charge and severity, date of offense,
disposition, and sentence. Part 2 also contains subsequent arrest and
incarceration records of the offender. Included for each subsequent
arrest is the status of the arrestee (juvenile or adult), the charge,
categorized by type and severity, the date of the arrest, the
conviction charge(s) by type and severity, the disposition of the
arrest, sentence, and the date of the sentence. Included for each
incarceration is the status of the offender (juvenile or adult), the
date of admission to a facility, and the length of time incarcerated.
A response rate for the subsample selected from
the FCDS study is not applicable, since the investigators used
secondary data sources. The rate at which the investigators obtained
subsequent arrest and incarceration records was 66.7 percent. Arrest
and incarceration records for 1,261 of the 1,890 juvenile offenders in
the FCDS subsample were obtained.
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