Effects of Incarceration on Criminal Trajectories in the United States, 1994 (ICPSR 4578)
Version Date: Feb 5, 2007 View help for published
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s)
Avinash Singh Bhati, Urban Institute
https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR04578.v1
Version V1
Summary View help for Summary
Using data from RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 1994: [UNITED STATES] (ICPSR 3355), this study developed an analytical approach to utilize detailed dated criminal arrest history information in order to investigate whether, and to what extent, incarceration is able to deter offenders from future offending. This data collection consists of the syntax for a SAS macro used to estimate individual specific offending micro-trajectories, project counterfactual trajectories, and to assess the actual post-release offending patterns against the backdrop of these counterfactuals. The arrest records of individuals were clustered in chronological order and were truncated after the first post-release re-arrest event. The key independent variables used in estimating the pre-release criminal history accumulation process included the arrest number, the age at first arrest, whether or not the individual was confined as a result of the previous arrest event, and a measure of the number of years taken to reach each arrest event cumulated through the last arrest event. The same set of basic variables were used to model first re-arrest after release (recidivism).
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Subject Terms View help for Subject Terms
Geographic Coverage View help for Geographic Coverage
Smallest Geographic Unit View help for Smallest Geographic Unit
None
Distributor(s) View help for Distributor(s)
Time Period(s) View help for Time Period(s)
Date of Collection View help for Date of Collection
Study Purpose View help for Study Purpose
The main purpose of this study was to develop an analytical approach to utilize detailed dated criminal history information in order to investigate whether, and to what extent, incarceration is able to deter offenders from future offending. A secondary purpose of the study was to demonstrate the utility of the developed framework by applying it to a real-world dataset.
Study Design View help for Study Design
The study utilized a combination of information-theory and event-history analysis to estimate individual-specific offending micro-trajectories, project counterfactual trajectories (the offending trajectory for each individual had (s)he not been incarcerated), and to assess the actual post-release offending patterns against the backdrop of these counterfactuals. The study used data collected by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), available as RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 1994: [UNITED STATES] (ICPSR 3355), which tracked a sample of 38,624 prisoners released from prison in 15 states in 1994 over a period of three years. The data consist of information on each releasee's entire officially recorded criminal history. This includes all recorded adult arrests through the end of the follow-up period. These data were obtained from state and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) automated RAP sheets and include arrest, adjudication, and sentencing information. Each arrest event includes information on adjudication and sentencing related to that event, if such action was taken. The data also include some demographic information, type of release from prison, and type of admission into prison. However, this information is only available for the 1994 release and not for all prior (or future) arrest events. This data collection consists of the syntax for a SAS macro used to estimate individual offending trajectories. Individuals that had some problem in their arrest history records or were not included in the BJS report were not included in the analysis sample. Arrest records were restructured into a hierarchical person-event-level file. Arrest events of each person were clustered in chronological order. The arrest histories were then truncated after the first post-release re-arrest event. For those persons that were not arrested after release, the arrest age was set to the age at censoring.
Sample View help for Sample
After removing persons who either had some problem in their arrest histories or were not included in the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) report, the remaining sample consisted of 32,628 persons across 15 states. Problem arrest histories were defined as records that were not in proper chronological order, those in which ages were incorrect or impossible, and those that were missing information on all ages or that had gaps in their age variable. Since the sample for California releasees was very large (nearly 60,000 person-events before prison release), a random subset of 2,500 individuals (21,838 person-events) from the California sample was used for estimating the pre-prison criminal history accumulation process. However, all individuals from the California sample were used in the analysis of the post-release data. Therefore, the final pre-release sample consisted of 21,226 individuals across the 15 states while the post-release sample consisted of 32,628 individuals.
Unit(s) of Observation View help for Unit(s) of Observation
Data Source View help for Data Source
RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 1994: [UNITED STATES] (ICPSR 3355)
Data Type(s) View help for Data Type(s)
Mode of Data Collection View help for Mode of Data Collection
Description of Variables View help for Description of Variables
The key independent variables used in estimating the pre-release criminal history accumulation process included the arrest number, the age at first arrest, whether or not the individual was confined as a result of the previous arrest event, and a measure of the number of years taken to reach each arrest event cumulated through the last arrest event. The same set of basic variables were used to model first re-arrest after release (recidivism).
Response Rates View help for Response Rates
Not applicable
Presence of Common Scales View help for Presence of Common Scales
None
HideOriginal Release Date View help for Original Release Date
2007-02-05
Version History View help for Version History
- Bhati, Avinash Singh. Effects of Incarceration on Criminal Trajectories in the United States, 1994. ICPSR04578-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2007-02-05. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR04578.v1
Notes
The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.