A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment in Vermont, 2001-2010 (ICPSR 31782)

Published: Sep 4, 2014 View help for published

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s)
Robert J. McGrath, Vermont Department of Corrections; Michael P. Lasher, Vermont Department of Corrections; Georgia F. Cumming, Vermont Department of Corrections

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR31782.v1

Version V1

Since 2001, Vermont Department of Corrections (DOC) sex offender treatment providers and probation and parole officers have scored every adult male sex offender under community supervision on three measures of static (unchangeable) risk at intake (i.e., Static-99, RRASOR-Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism, and VASOR-Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk) and one measure of dynamic (changeable) risk (i.e, SOTNPS) at intake and then every six months thereafter. This project conducted record reviews to verify the accuracy of the risk assessment scores and examined how scores on the Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) and one or more of these static risk instruments can be combined into an overall model of risk assessment. An empirically derived decision-making model was created to assist correctional administrators, probation and parole officers, and treatment providers in allocating and delivering supervision and treatment services based on an individual's treatment needs and risk to sexually re-offend.

Three hypotheses were tested. First, it was expected that one or more static risk measures (Static-99R, Static-2002R and VASOR) would predict sexual recidivism with moderate accuracy in the sample. Second, a dynamic risk measure, Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale (SOTNPS), or a subset of risk factors contained in this measure would also predict sexual recidivism with moderate accuracy and be sensitive to the changes in dynamic risk over time. Third, a combined static and dynamic risk measure would predict sexual recidivism more accurate than either measure alone.

McGrath, Robert J., Lasher, Michael P., and Cumming, Georgia F. A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment in Vermont, 2001-2010 . Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2014-09-04. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR31782.v1

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United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice (NIJ 2008-DD-BX-0013)

United States

Access to these data is restricted. Users interested in obtaining these data must complete a Restricted Data Use Agreement, specify the reasons for the request, and obtain IRB approval or notice of exemption for their research.

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research

The purpose of the study was to combine static and dynamic risk measures into an overall assessment model that might predict sexual recidivism among adult male sex offenders better than either type of measure alone.

A trained and experienced masters level research assistant used DOC case files and databases to collect demographic, offense characteristic, and dynamic risk factor score, Sex Offender Treatment Need and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) information on each participant. The research assistant also scored participants on the Static-99R, Static-2002R and VASOR (Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk) based on their status as of date of community placement, and when scores already existed, ensured their accuracy. A second rater independently scored these three static risk instruments on approximately every tenth case to assess inter-rater reliability.

The sample was drawn from adult male sex offenders enrolled in a statewide network of community sex offender treatment programs, the Vermont Treatment Program for Sexual Abusers (VTPSA). VTPSA is the state's integrated network of three prisons and 13 outpatient programs operated by the Vermont Department of Corrections.

Sample participants had to meet four criteria. First they were convicted of at least one sexual offense against an identifiable child or non-consenting adult victim. Second, participants entered a VTPSA sponsored community sex offender treatment program between 2001 and 2007. Third, the time period from when they began VTPSA sponsored treatment to the end date of the study follow-up period on December 31, 2010 was at least three years. Fourth, their treatment provider evaluated them using the Sex Offender Treatment Need and Progress Scale (SOTNPS) at least once during the study period and submitted the results to the researchers. At the time of community placement, the men were 18 to 75 years old.

Longitudinal: Panel: Continuous

The sample was drawn from adult male sex offenders enrolled in Vermont's statewide network of community sex offender treatment programs who were under DOC community correctional supervision between 2001 and 2007.

Individual
administrative records data

  • Dataset 1 (Primary Dataset) has 515 variables and 759 cases and is comprised of collected field data and recorded and computed variables based on collected field data.

  • Dataset 2 (Repeated Data) has 32 variables and 2281 cases and was developed by restructuring the Primary Dataset, and creating recorded and computed variables based on this, to conduct repeated measures GEE analysis.

  • Dataset 3 (Inter-rater Data) has 47 variables with 320 cases and is comprised of coded cases scored on the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) by two raters to measure the inter-rater reliability of the SOTNPS scale. Variables in this dataset include information regarding the participant's treatment status as well as the type of offense they were charged with. The data also includes scores on the various assessments used such as the VASOR. Recidivism variables and treatment progress variables are included in this dataset as well.

Not available

SOTNPS (Sex Offender Treatment Needs and Progress Scale), Static-99R, Static-2002-R, and VASOR (Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk).

2014-09-04

2014-09-04

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • McGrath, Robert J., Michael P. Lasher, and Georgia F. Cumming. A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment in Vermont, 2001-2010 . ICPSR31782-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2014-09-04. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR31782.v1

2014-09-04 ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection:

  • Created variable labels and/or value labels.
  • Standardized missing values.

Notes

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

  • One or more files in this data collection have special restrictions. Restricted data files are not available for direct download from the website; click on the Restricted Data button to learn more.

  • The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented.
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This dataset is maintained and distributed by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD), the criminal justice archive within ICPSR. NACJD is primarily sponsored by three agencies within the U.S. Department of Justice: the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, and the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.