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Political Business Cycles in Open Economies in 28 Developing Countries From Latin America, Asia, and Africa, 1976-2002 (ICPSR 27581)

Principal Investigator(s): Hall, Michael G., Wichita State University


This study looked at whether opportunistic and partisan business cycles influence fiscal policy in 28 developing countries when controlling for de facto exchange rate regimes and capital mobility. Several issues were investigated: 1) opportunistic business cycles, whether elections cause the governments budget balance (taxes minus spending) to experience fiscal expansion (lower taxes and higher spending) in order to stimulate the economy; 2) partisan business cycles, whether left-wing parties engage in more fiscal expansion; 3) whether growing capital mobility (the ability of financial capital to move across borders) will encourage or inhibit a government's ability to engage in fiscal expansion with an impending election or left-wing party; and 4) whether the exchange rate regime (the rules for determining the exchange rate) is a mitigating factor.

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Study Description


Hall, Michael G. Political Business Cycles in Open Economies in 28 Developing Countries From Latin America, Asia, and Africa, 1976-2002. ICPSR27581-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2010-10-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR27581.v1

Persistent URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR27581.v1

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Scope of Study

Subject Terms:    business cycles, exchange rates, fiscal policy, government spending

Smallest Geographic Unit:    country

Geographic Coverage:    Africa, Argentina, Asia, Bolivia, Botswana, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Global, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Latin America, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela

Time Period:   

  • 1976--2002

Date of Collection:   

  • 2009-05-16--2009-12-30

Unit of Observation:    country

Universe:    Twenty-eight developing countries in Latin America, Asia, and Africa from 1976-2002.

Data Type(s):    administrative records data


Data Source:

Chinn, Menzie and Hiro Ito (2008) "A New Measure of Financial Openness," Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 10(3), 309-322.

Henisz, Witold J. (2000) "The Institutional Environment for Multinational Investment," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 16(2), 334-364.

International Monetary Fund (IMF), (various years), International Financial Statistics (IFS), Washington, DC.

Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff (2004) "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation" Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1), 1-48. Available at http://www.wam.umd.edu/~creinhar/Papers.html.

World Bank (various years) Database of Political Indicators (DPI). Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank (various years) World Development Indicators (WDI). Washington, DC: World Bank.


Original ICPSR Release:   2010-10-06



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