FOMC Forecasts: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency? (ICPSR 1287)

Published: Jun 25, 2003

Principal Investigator(s):
William T. Gavin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01287.v1

Version V1

Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymakers' forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author of this article finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central tendency and, in a few cases, significantly better.

Gavin, William T. FOMC Forecasts:  Is All the Information in the Central Tendency? Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-06-25. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01287.v1

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(1) The file submitted is the Excel file, 0305wg.xls. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

2003-06-25

2003-06-25

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