A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies (ICPSR 1115)

Published: Jun 10, 1996

Principal Investigator(s):
Gary King; James E. Alt; Nancy Burns; Michael Laver


Version V1

The literature on cabinet duration is split between two apparently irreconcilable positions. The ATTRIBUTES THEORISTS seek to explain cabinet duration as a fixed function of measured explanatory variables, while the EVENTS PROCESS THEORISTS model cabinet durations as a product of purely stochastic processes. In this paper, we build a unified statistical model that combines the insights of these previously distinct approaches. We also generalize this unified model, and all previous models, by including (1) a stochastic component that takes into account the censoring that occurs as a result of governments lasting to the vicinity of the maximum constitutional interelection period, (2) a systematic component that precludes the possibility of negative duration predictions, and (3) a much more objective and parsimonious list of explanatory variables, the explanatory power of which would not be improved by including a list of indicator variables for individual countries.

King, Gary, Alt, James E., Burns, Nancy, and Laver, Michael. A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies . Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1996-06-10. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01115.v1

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