Economics, Issues, and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election (ICPSR 1112)

Published: Oct 7, 1999

Principal Investigator(s):
R. Michael Alvarez; Jonathan Nagler

Version V1

This research was a multinomial probit analysis of 1992 National Election Studies data including individual-specific and alternative-specific variables. It consisted of simulations based on counterfactual scenarios of ideological positions of the candidates and of voter perceptions of the economy. Results of the study show that the economy was the dominant factor in accounting for voter decisions in 1992, and that Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. Issues played an important role in this election, but Clinton was not perceived as a "New Democrat". The authors found little support for the hypothesis of angry voting. Also, they discovered that Perot took more votes from Bush than from Clinton.

Alvarez, R. Michael, and Nagler, Jonathan. Economics, Issues, and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1999-10-07.

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1999-10-07 In preparing the dataset for replication, an error was found in the construction of the original data used in the article. Corrected data were submitted. The new files are alvar95.tar and, the old files are alvar95.oldtar and


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