Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States [Phase I: Development of a Methodology] (ICPSR 20422)

Version Date: Feb 19, 2015

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Principal Investigator(s):
Heather J. Clawson, Caliber, an ICF International Company; Mary Lane, Caliber, an ICF International Company; Kevonne Small, Caliber, an ICF International Company

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20422.v1

Version V1

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Summary

This research project developed and fully documented a method to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the Southwest border. The model utilizes only open source data. This research represents the first phase of a two-phase project and

  • Provides a conceptual framework for identifying potential data sources to estimate the number of victims at different stages in trafficking
  • Develops statistical models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked for sexual and labor exploitation from the eight countries, and the number of males and females actually trafficked for sex and labor
  • Incorporates into the estimation models the transit journey of trafficking victims from the eight countries to the southwest border of the United States
  • Designs the estimation models such that they are highly flexible and modular so that they can evolve as the body of data expands
  • Utilizes open source data as inputs to the statistical model, making the model accessible to anyone interested in using it
  • Presents preliminary estimates that illustrate the use of the statistical methods
  • Illuminates gaps in data sources.

The data included in this collection are the open source data which were primarily used in the models to estimate the number of males and females at risk of being trafficked.

Citation

Clawson, Heather J., Lane, Mary, and Small, Kevonne. Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States [Phase I: Development of a Methodology]. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2015-02-19. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20422.v1

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Funding

United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice (T-0001, 2004TO178)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Smallest Geographic Unit

country

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

2005

Date of Collection

2006

Data Collection Notes

  1. The data included in this collection correspond to phase one of a two phase study. Additional data used for phase two may not be included in this collection.

  2. The model developed as part of this study includes both a "Source Zone" model and a "Transit Zone" model. The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females (Part 1) and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males (Part 2) data correspond to the Source Zone model. The Population data (Parts 3 and 4) were used in both the Source and Transit zone models. For more information about the Source Zone and Transit Zone models, users should refer to the final report for the study (Clawson, Layne, and Small, 2006; NCJ 215475).

  3. Users should be aware that although the focus of this study was on eight source countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela), Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females (Part 1) and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males (Part 2) include data from additional countries. Population Data (Part 3) includes only data from the source countries and the United States, and U.S. Population Data (Part 4) includes data only for the United States.

  4. Users should be aware that ICPSR converted the original Microsoft Excel data provided by the principal investigators to SPSS, SAS, and Stata formats for dissemination purposes. Not all of the original Microsoft Excel data were converted, and PDF copies of those data are included in the [CODEBOOKS/UG] for these data.

  5. Users should be aware that the number of countries for which data were provided differs between the data files. Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females Data (Part 1) has data for 112 countries and Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males Data (Part 2) has data for 99 countries. The following countries are included in Part 1 but not in Part 2: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Gambia, Lao People's Rep., Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe.

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Study Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop and fully document methods to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the southwest border.

Study Design

Trafficking is organized into four zones or phases:

  • Recruitment from the eight countries of origin (source countries)
  • Transit journey
  • Arrival at southwest border of the United States
  • Transport from southwest border to markets within the United States.

The data available in this collection focus on the first phase (recruitment). This model incorporates two components for the estimated risk of being trafficked-- country-specific and age-specific risk.

Trafficking victims are vulnerable to promises of greater opportunity, higher income, and a chance to help their families. The study attempted to find data that captured the various push factors in each source country that would help quantify the risk associated with a particular country. Push factors include disparate economic growth, breakdown of economic systems, and increase in war and armed conflict, environmental degradation, natural disasters, and family violence.

For females, country-specific factors are captured in a composite measure created from the Gini Index (UNDP, 2005) which measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or consumption) among individuals or households within a country deviates from a perfectly equal distribution, Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) (Transparency International, 2005), the Gender-related Development Index (GDI) (UNDP, 2005), and the percent of the country that is urban (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; HIV InSite, 2005). For men, country-specific factors are captured in a composite measure created from the Gini Index, CPI (International Labour Organization, 2005), male unemployment rates (International Labour Organization, 2005), and the Consumer Price Index (International Labour Organization, 2005). The age-specific risk (population data in each of the eight countries of origin are available for 5-year age groups, or 17 age groups in all) is modeled with a Weibull probability distribution (see Appendix A of the final report: Clawson, Layne, and Small, 2006; NCJ 215475), which is specified differently for males and females.

Sample

The decision to limit the regions of interest for this study to the eight countries of origin (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) and to one entry point into the United States (the southwest border) was based on reported trafficking activity in the eight countries of origin, data limitations, and the need to focus the scope of work to a demonstration project.

Part 1 includes data on 112 countries, including the 8 source countries and the United States. Part 2 includes data on 99 countries, including the 8 source countries and the United States. Part 3 includes data on 17 age categories in 9 countries (the eight source countries and the United States), resulting in a total of 153 cases. Part 4 includes data on 103 ages (or age ranges) in the United States.

Time Method

Cross-sectional

Universe

Part 1 and 2: All countries for which data on the selected indicators were available. Part 3: The 8 selected source countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) and the United States. Part 4: The United States.

Unit(s) of Observation

country

Data Source

Open source data for 2005 from the following organizations:

  • United Nations Development Program
  • Transparency International
  • U.S. Census Bureau International Database
  • HIV InSite
  • International Labour Organization

Data Type(s)

Mode of Data Collection

Description of Variables

  • The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Females Data (Part 1) include a total of 12 variables. These include four indicator variables: The Corruption Perception Index (CPI), The Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), The Gini Index, and the Percentage of population living in urban areas. For each of these indicators, there are also linear transformations created to standardize each index. From these, a composite indicator and a country-specific risk multiplier were calculated.
  • The Country-Specific Risk Indices for Males Data (Part 2) include a total of 14 variables. These include five indicator variables: the CPI, the Gini Index, the percentage of population living in urban areas, the male unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index. For each of these indicators, there are also linear transformations created to standardize each index. From these, a composite indicator and a country-specific risk multiplier were calculated.
  • The Population Data (Part 3) include 10 variables summarizing the male and female population size by age for the eight countries of origin and the United States in 2005.
  • The U.S. Population Data (Part 4) include 3 variables summarizing the U.S. male and female population size by age.

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Original Release Date

2015-02-19

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • Clawson, Heather J., Mary Lane, and Kevonne Small. Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States [Phase I: Development of a Methodology]. ICPSR20422-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2015-02-19. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20422.v1

2015-02-19 ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection:

  • Created variable labels and/or value labels.
  • Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.
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Weight

None

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Notes

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.