Escalation of Great Power Disputes: Deterrence Versus Structural Realism, 1816-1984 (ICPSR 6355)

Version Date: Jan 12, 2006

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Principal Investigator(s):
Paul D. Huth; Christopher Gelpi; D. Scott Bennett

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR06355.v1

Version V1

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Summary

The purpose of this study was to test the relative explanatory power of two theoretical approaches--deterrence theory and structural realism--in predicting dispute escalation among "Great Powers" from 1816 to 1984. The Great Powers during this time period are identified as Great Britain, France, Russia/Soviet Union, Austria-Hungary, Prussia/Germany, Italy, the United States, Japan, and China. A Great Power deterrence encounter is defined as the explicit verbal threat of force or the movement and buildup of military forces in preparation for armed conflict by a challenging Great Power and a counterthreat by the defending Great Power. Variables measure dispute escalation, system uncertainty, risk propensity, balance of conventional military capabilities of challenger and defender, defender's possession of second-strike nuclear capability, interests at stake for challenger and defender, past behavior of challenger and defender, and current dispute involvement of challenger and defender. Part 2, Deterrence Variables Data, contains the complete set of variables, and Part 1, Deterrence Final Equation Data, is a subset of Part 2.

Citation

Huth, Paul D., Gelpi, Christopher, and Bennett, D. Scott. Escalation of Great Power Disputes: Deterrence Versus Structural Realism, 1816-1984. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2006-01-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR06355.v1

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Funding

National Science Foundation (SES 9023067)

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Time Period(s)

1816 -- 1984

Date of Collection

1991 -- 1992

Data Collection Notes

  1. Data for this study were extracted in part from CORRELATES OF WAR PROJECT: INTERNATIONAL AND CIVIL WAR DATA, 1816-1992 (ICPSR 9905) and POLITY DATA: PERSISTENCE AND CHANGE IN POLITICAL SYSTEMS, 1800-1971 (ICPSR 5010). For a more detailed description of the current dataset, users may consult the related publications listed below.

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Universe

Deterrence encounters involving Great Powers during the period 1816-1984.

Data Source

CORRELATES OF WAR PROJECT: INTERNATIONAL AND CIVIL WAR DATA, 1816-1992 (ICPSR 9905) and POLITY DATA: PERSISTENCE AND CHANGE IN POLITICAL SYSTEMS, 1800-1971 (ICPSR 5010)

Data Type(s)

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Original Release Date

1995-03-16

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • Huth, Paul D., Christopher Gelpi, and D. Scott Bennett. Escalation of Great Power Disputes: Deterrence Versus Structural Realism, 1816-1984. ICPSR06355-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1995. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR06355.v1

2006-01-12 All files were removed from dataset 7 and flagged as study-level files, so that they will accompany all downloads.

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Notes