How Well Does Employment Predict Output? (ICPSR 20963)

Version Date: Sep 17, 2007

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Principal Investigator(s):
Kevin L. Kliesen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20963.v1

Version V1

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Summary

Economists, policymakers, and financial market analysts typically pay close attention to aggregate employment trends because employment is thought to be an important indicator of macroeconomic conditions. One difficulty is that there are two separate surveys of employment, which can diverge widely from one another, as the previous and current economic expansions demonstrate. The conventional wisdom is that, for assessing economic conditions, the survey that counts the number of jobs (establishment survey) is preferable to the survey that counts the number of people employed (household survey). However, results from a one-quarter-ahead forecasting exercise presented in this paper suggest that analysts should question whether employment is a useful indicator for predicting output growth.

Citation

Kliesen, Kevin L. How Well Does Employment Predict Output? Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2007-09-17. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20963.v1

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Funding

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division

Subject Terms

Geographic Coverage

Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Data Collection Notes

  1. (1) A zipped package contains an Excel file which comprises the data, program syntax, and figures. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

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Original Release Date

2007-09-17

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • Kliesen, Kevin L. How Well Does Employment Predict Output?. ICPSR20963-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2007-09-17. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20963.v1
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Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.