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How Well Does Employment Predict Output? (ICPSR 20963)
Economists, policymakers, and financial market analysts typically pay close attention to aggregate employment trends because employment is thought to be an important indicator of macroeconomic conditions. One difficulty is that there are two separate surveys of employment, which can diverge widely from one another, as the previous and current economic expansions demonstrate. The conventional wisdom is that, for assessing economic conditions, the survey that counts the number of jobs (establishment survey) is preferable to the survey that counts the number of people employed (household survey). However, results from a one-quarter-ahead forecasting exercise presented in this paper suggest that analysts should question whether employment is a useful indicator for predicting output growth.
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Kliesen, Kevin L. How Well Does Employment Predict Output?. ICPSR20963-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2007-09-17. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20963.v1
Persistent URL: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR20963.v1
This study was funded by:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division
Scope of Study
Subject Terms: economic conditions, economic growth, economic trends, employment, employment projections, financial planning, financial policy, inflation, labor force, labor markets, macroeconomics, policy analysis, policy making
Geographic Coverage: United States
(1) A zipped package contains an Excel file which comprises the data, program syntax, and figures. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.
Original ICPSR Release: 2007-09-17
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