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Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries (ICPSR 1328)
Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics--the expected output loss associated with a recession--helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.
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Dueker, Michael J. Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries. ICPSR01328-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2006-10-02. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01328.v1
Persistent URL: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01328.v1
This study was funded by:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division
Scope of Study
Geographic Coverage: United States
(1) Two files, 0603mdp.txt, program file, and 0603mdd.txt, data file, were submitted. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.
Original ICPSR Release: 2006-10-02
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