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Using Implied Volatility to Measure Uncertainty About Interest Rates (ICPSR 1316)

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Summary:

Option prices can be used to infer the level of uncertainty about future asset prices. The first two parts of this article explain such measures (implied volatility) and how they can differ from the market's true expectation of uncertainty. The third then estimates the implied volatility of three month eurodollar interest rates from 1985 to 2001 and evaluates its ability to predict realized volatility. Implied volatility shows that uncertainty about short-term interest rates has been falling for almost 20 years, as the levels of interest rates and inflation have fallen. And changes in implied volatility are usually coincident with major news about the stock market, the real economy, and monetary policy.

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  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • These data are freely available.

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Study Description

Citation

Neely, Christopher J. Using Implied Volatility to Measure Uncertainty About Interest Rates. ICPSR01316-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2006-01-31. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01316.v1

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Funding

This study was funded by:

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division

Scope of Study

Subject Terms:   interest rates

Data Collection Notes:

(1) The file submitted is the program file 0505cnp.txt. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

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