ICPSR Logo

This study is provided by ICPSR. ICPSR provides leadership and training in data access, curation, and methods of analysis for a diverse and expanding social science research community.

Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession (ICPSR 1272) RSS

Principal Investigator(s):

Summary:

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-1991 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.

Access Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • These data are freely available.

Dataset(s)

Dataset - Download All Files (10 KB)
Data:

Study Description

Citation

Dueker, Michael J. Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession. ICPSR01272-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-18. doi:10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1

Persistent URL:

Export Citation:

  • RIS (generic format for RefWorks, EndNote, etc.)
  • EndNote XML (EndNote X4.0.1 or higher)

Scope of Study

Subject Terms:   economic conditions, economic change, economic indicators, prediction, recession

Geographic Coverage:   United States

Data Collection Notes:

(1) The files submitted are the program file, 0211mdp.txt, and the data file, 0211mdd.txt. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

Methodology

Version(s)

Original ICPSR Release:  

Related Publications

Utilities

Metadata Exports

If you're looking for collection-level metadata rather than an individual metadata record, please visit our Metadata Records page.

Download Statistics

Found a problem? Use our Report Problem form to let us know.