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Principal Investigator(s): Rasche, Robert H., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Thornton, Daniel L., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a "balance of risks" statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. The authors evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market's interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.
These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.
These data are freely available.
Rasche, Robert H., and Daniel L. Thornton. The FOMC's Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions. ICPSR01270-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-18. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1
Persistent URL: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1
Scope of Study
Geographic Coverage: United States
Data Collection Notes:
(1) The file submitted is the data file, 0209rrd.xls. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.
Original ICPSR Release: 2003-04-18
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