The FOMC's Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions (ICPSR 1270)

Version Date: Apr 18, 2003

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Principal Investigator(s):
Robert H. Rasche, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Daniel L. Thornton, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1

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Summary

In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a "balance of risks" statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. The authors evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market's interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.

Citation

Rasche, Robert H., and Thornton, Daniel L. The FOMC’s Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1

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Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Data Collection Notes

  1. (1) The file submitted is the data file, 0209rrd.xls. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

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Original Release Date

2003-04-18

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • Rasche, Robert H., and Daniel L. Thornton. The FOMC's Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions. ICPSR01270-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-18. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1
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Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.