Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity (ICPSR 1266)

Principal Investigator(s): Gavin, William T., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Kliesen, Kevin L., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Summary: Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the course of the economy. This article examines whether monthly changes in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP. It then examines whether weekly changes in initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are useful for helping to predict changes in important labor market i... (more info)

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Gavin, William T., and Kevin L. Kliesen. Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity. ICPSR01266-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-25. doi:10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1

Persistent URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1

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Summary:   Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the course of the economy. This article examines whether monthly changes in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP. It then examines whether weekly changes in initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are useful for helping to predict changes in important labor market indicators. Incoming monthly data on nonfarm payroll jobs and the index of aggregate weekly hours help predict changes in real GDP growth, but data on the civilian unemployment rate do not. The authors also find that unemployment insurance claims help to predict changes in monthly labor variables. As others have found, these predictions work best in periods of recession. However, this article shows that there was also some predictive ability during the 1990s expansion.

Subject Terms:   economic growth rate, economic indicators, economic trends, Gross Domestic Product, insurance claims, labor markets, unemployment, unemployment insurance

Geographic Coverage:   United States

Data Collection Notes:

(1) Files submitted are 0205wgd.xls, the data, and 0205wgp.prg, the program. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

Original ICPSR Release:  2003-04-25

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