Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity (ICPSR 1266)

Version Date: Apr 25, 2003

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Principal Investigator(s):
William T. Gavin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Kevin L. Kliesen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1

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Summary

Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the course of the economy. This article examines whether monthly changes in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP. It then examines whether weekly changes in initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are useful for helping to predict changes in important labor market indicators. Incoming monthly data on nonfarm payroll jobs and the index of aggregate weekly hours help predict changes in real GDP growth, but data on the civilian unemployment rate do not. The authors also find that unemployment insurance claims help to predict changes in monthly labor variables. As others have found, these predictions work best in periods of recession. However, this article shows that there was also some predictive ability during the 1990s expansion.

Citation

Gavin, William T., and Kliesen, Kevin L. Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-25. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1

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Distributor(s)

Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
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Data Collection Notes

  1. (1) Files submitted are 0205wgd.xls, the data, and 0205wgp.prg, the program. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

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Original Release Date

2003-04-25

Version History

2018-02-15 The citation of this study may have changed due to the new version control system that has been implemented. The previous citation was:
  • Gavin, William T., and Kevin L. Kliesen. Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity. ICPSR01266-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2003-04-25. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1
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Notes

  • These data are flagged as replication datasets and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

  • The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public. Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.