Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?

Principal Investigator(s): Gavin, William T., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Mandel, Rachel, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Summary: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a go... (more info)

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Gavin, William T., and Rachel Mandel. Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?. ICPSR01242-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2001-06-12. doi:10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1

Persistent URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1

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Summary: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor rule, the authors show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.

Subject Terms: economic growth, Federal Open Market Committee, inflation, monetary policy, prediction

Geographic Coverage: United States

Data Collection Notes:

(1) There were two files submitted, 0105wgp.prg, containing programs, and 0105wgd.xls, containing data. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

Original ICPSR Release: 2001-06-12

2001

Gavin, William T., Mandel, Rachel . Forecasting inflation and growth: Do private forecasts match those of policymakers?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 83, (3), 11-19.

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