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Inflation-Target Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries (ICPSR 1204)
Principal Investigator(s): Siklos, Pierre L., Wilfred Laurier University
This research explores the behavior of inflation in countries that formally target inflation relative to countries with historically good inflation records but which do not target the rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI). The author examines the design of inflation targets and the circumstances under which they were introduced. The author also asks, via some simple econometric tests, whether the introduction of targets had any statistically discernible impact on inflation persistence, and additionally, whether inflation persistence changed in the select countries that have no formal inflation targets. Finally, the author assesses, via a discussion of the behavior of private sector inflation forecasts, the credibility of inflation targets. Descriptive and econometric evidence suggest that the mere adoption of an inflation target is insufficient in delivering a consistently better inflation performance, nor does it significantly affect inflationary expectations. It remains to be seen whether inflation targeting can withstand pressures stemming from sustained breaches of targets, should inflation policies in the major industrialized countries begin to diverge. After all, the current disinflation, as this study has shown, is an international phenomenon.
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Siklos, Pierre L. Inflation-Target Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries. ICPSR01204-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1999-08-18. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01204.v1
Persistent URL: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01204.v1
This study was funded by:
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (Canada)
Scope of Study
Data Collection Notes:
The file submitted for release is 9903PS.DAT.
These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.
Original ICPSR Release: 1999-08-18
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