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Principal Investigator(s): Pollard, Patricia S., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Coughlin, Cletus C., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Asian financial and economic crisis has attracted much attention to the trade links among the United States and countries throughout Asia. Until the crisis, United States exports to East Asia were growing rapidly. In this article, the authors examine the abrupt decline in exports and provide estimates of the sizes of the export shock both to the United States economy as a whole and to specific sectors. More than half the industries they studied experienced declines in exports to East Asia of more than 15 percent. However, focusing solely on the export data overstates the importance of these declines for the industries in question. The effect of the decline depends on the extent to which that industry relies on the East Asian market to sell its output. Incorporating the export declines with the market share data indicates the extent to which each industry has been affected. For most industries, the decline in exports lowered growth by 0.4 percentage points or less. For some industries, such as the nonelectrical machinery industry, the export shock reduced output by 1 percent or more.
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Pollard, Patricia S., and Cletus C. Coughlin. Going Down: The Asian Crisis and United States Exports. ICPSR01203-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1999-08-18. doi:10.3886/ICPSR01203.v1
Persistent URL: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01203.v1
Scope of Study
Data Collection Notes:
The files submitted for release are 9903PCD.XLS, the data and programs for Figures 1-4 in the article, and 9903PCDP.ZIP, which unzips to program and data files for the rest of the tables and figures in the article.
These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.
Original ICPSR Release: 1999-08-18
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