Estimating the Elasticities of Demand for Cocaine and Heroin with Data from 21 Cities from the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) Program, 1987-1991
Caulkins, Jonathan P.
ADAM/DUF Program
alcohol abuse
cocaine
consumption
criminal histories
crime patterns
demographic characteristics
drug dependence
drug law offenses
drug offenders
drug related crimes
drug testing
drug traffic
drug use
gun use
handguns
heroin
price fluctuations
recidivism prediction
substance abuse
trends
urinalysis
ICPSR.XVII.E
NACJD.XI
NAHDAP.I
The objective of this research was to estimate the
elasticity of the demand for cocaine and heroin with respect to the
price. Price elasticity is the percentage of change in the dependent
quantity corresponding to a one-percent change in price. The project
involved the development of an econometric model to determine price
elasticity, given that national- and city-level data on the
consumption of cocaine and heroin are insufficient or nonexistent. The
researchers circumvented this lack of data by partitioning the desired
elasticity into the product of two elasticities, involving a
measurable intermediate quantity whose relationship to the quantity of
consumption could be modeled and estimated by measurable
techniques. The intermediate quantity used for this project was the
fraction of arrestees testing positive for cocaine or heroin as
measured by the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) System. From the Drug
Enforcement Administration's (DEA's) System to Retrieve Information
from Drug Evidence (STRIDE) data, expected purity was computed by
regressing on log quantity and dummy variables for location and
quarter. Price series were produced by finding the median standardized
price per expected pure gram for each location and quarter. Variables
for Part 1, National Data, include year, quarter, standardized prices
for a gram of cocaine and a gram of heroin, and expected purity of
cocaine and heroin. The Cities Data, Part 2, cover city, year,
quarter, number of observations used to compute the median price of
cocaine and heroin, standardized prices, and expected purity.
2006-03-30
survey data and event/transaction data
6567
10.3886/ICPSR06567.v1
DRUG USE FORECASTING IN 24 CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES,
1987-1991 (ICPSR 9477) and the Drug Enforcement Administration's
System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE)
United States
1987--1991
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